The Game Vitals
Game Time – 1 pm. Alerus Center.
Opponent – Southern Utah
Game Notes – UND
TV – Midco Sports Network
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – WatchBigSky
Spread – UND -3.5. Total = 43.5
Southern Utah (3-2) Breakdown
— Offense = Spread
— Defense = 4-3
Offensively – Southern Utah appears to be pretty balanced with run to pass being close to 50/50 in the games we have seen. They predominantly run out 11 and 12 personnel groupings as they love to have their TEs on the field. While almost always in the shotgun, they will line up in both pistol and offset gun looks.
In the running game, they will pull a guard and run power, run inside and outside zone, and use their ‘hit’ TEs to run ISO plays with fold blocks on the inside backer. In the passing game, SUU employs pretty vanilla 3-step, 5-step and play-action concepts.
The Thunderbirds offense is run by Juco transfer QB #3 Patrick Tyler, who has thrown for 780 yards and 8 TDs on the season with a 54% completion percentage. Tyler is pretty methodical and likes to get the ball out on time as he is not really a ‘dual-threat’ runner from the pocket. Getting the ball out early and on time helps neutralize the pass rush and blitz, which will be something to keep an eye on. Let’s see how UND defensive coordinator Eric Schmidt decides to attack and when.
Tyler’s favorite target is 6’2″ senior wide receiver #11 Mike Sharp, who enters the game with 26 catches for 340 yards and 6 TDs. Sharp is all-conference level WR and is the T-Birds big play threat. UND needs to be aware of his alignment in certain personnel groupings because he will be tough to cover 1-on-1.
In the running game, senior RB #4 Malik Brown is having a great year to date with 540 yards rushing on 86 carries (6.3 ypc), which is good for second overall in the Big Sky. At 6’1-205, Brown is a big, powerful RB that also has shiftiness in his game.
Up front, the SUU o-line is solid and the UND defensive front will need to do what they did last week and control the point of attack in the run game.
Some question marks remain on UND defensive personnel going into Saturday. Is Cole Reyes healthy? Will he play? Should he play? If so, how much? Also, we believe Drew Greely will be back on the DL, but we are uncertain of the status of Brandon Dranka.
Defensively – The T-Birds employ a standard 4-3 scheme. Very active up front and will bring some pressure but not on a consistent basis, more of a read and react defense.
On the year SUU is giving up 25 pts/game and 455 yds/game of total offense. On the ground they allow 156 yds/game. As you can see, they will give up yards but get pretty stingy in the red zone, only allowing a 50% TD rate.
The strength of the SUU defense is the front four and their two ILB’s. They do a great job of forming a wall up front and allowing their athletic LB’s to make plays.
ILB #34 Mike Needham (6’4″-210) is a playmaker. Very active and rangy, Needham will be in on a bunch of plays Saturday and UND must address him on passing downs. On the year Needham has 45 tackles, 8 TFL’s, 3 sacks, and 2 INT’s. Like we said, a playmaker.
Along the defensive line, #8 Taylor Pili is a big, athletic defensive end that likes to wreak havoc off the edge. They will widen him out and let him go 1-on-1 with the opposing tackle. Pili has 27 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s and 3 sacks thus far in 2016.
The weakness of the SUU defense, as far as we can tell, is the secondary. Run support has been an issue along with spotty pass coverage. If UND can get their RB’s through the initial wave of defenders good things could happen on Saturday.
North Dakota Keys to Win The Game
- Defend long ball. WR Mike Sharp is the big play guy for SUU. Being they are fairly methodical on offense, they like to take they shots deep to get all the yards at once. Sharp isn’t Cooper Kupp but he isn’t too far off, either.
- Defend the POST ROUTE. Please. UND got beat again on a simple post last week but LB Dylan Bakker got a hand on it and deflected it away. Teams are going to keep doing this until UND starts picking them off.
- Special Teams play. UND’s special teams are going to have to be huge in this one. Being both teams are run first, defensive-oriented teams. A play here or there on special teams could be the difference. Field the punt, cover the kickoffs a bit better and keep up the big kick returns we have seen lately.
- Go East and West, young man. The A-B gaps might be a tough to penetrate in this one. UND showed they can go laterally vs. Poly and did it quite well. That may be the game plan again this week.
- UND now has two bonafide all-conference type of running backs in Brady Oliveira and John Santiago. Keep the rotation going and ride the hot hand. Move them around and create confusion.
- QB Keaton Studsrud has one interception on the season in 152 attempts. He has been getting better every game and UND will need that efficiency this week vs. a stout SUU front four.
- Need a big day from the UND inside linebackers. The power and iso running game will test Taj Rich, Dylan Bakker, Connor O’Brien and Donnell Rodgers. These guys need to do a good job getting underneath and off ‘pullers and folders’, while keeping their heads in their gaps. Limiting the SUU running game could start right here.
The Prediction
This is the biggest game of the year (have we said that before?). SUU is the defending Big Sky Champ and is 3-2 on the year. The winner of this sets themselves up nicely for a stretch run to the playoffs. The loser pretty much has to win out for any shot.
Homecoming often times becomes more of a distraction than an advantage. If UND can focus in on Saturday and play their game they can win this game. If they are distracted and not ready to go Southern Utah could easily head back to “Whoville” with a ‘W’.
