The Game Vitals
Game Time – 1:05 pm.
Opponent – Northern Arizona
Game Notes – UND
TV – Midco Sports Network 2
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – WatchBigSky
Spread – UND -4. Total = 49.5
Northern Arizona (5-4) Breakdown
— Offense = Spread
— Defense = 4-3
Offensively –
The Lumberjacks employ multiple personnel groupings and formations. This is a very balanced offense with approximately 53% of their plays coming by the pass and 47% via the run game. The NAU offense averages 34.3 points per game and 483.4 yards of total offense; 258.3 comes from the air, 172.8 from the rushing attack. There is some definitely some firepower here and this is a big concern for UND on Saturday.
In addition to the skill position talent, their offensive line has only given up 4 sacks all season long. Pretty amazing considering they have thrown the ball 333 times this year. Part of that is because they get rid of the ball pretty quick and on time. We think we will see more 4-man rushes this week and play coverage rather than being heavy on the blitzing. NAU is fairly poor in the red zone, only converting 75% of the time and only 50% of the time are they touchdowns. This is something to watch on Saturday.
As stated earlier this week on Twitter, wide receiver #8 Emmanuel Butler is a flat-out stud and game changer. The 6-4 220 pound junior is definitely an NFL-caliber talent and should get a chance to be drafted in 2018. Butler enters the game with 54 catches for 797 yards (14.8 yards/rec) and 8 TDs. Not far behind him is #3 Elijah Marks (6-1 175 lbs) with 35 catches for 655 (18.7 per) and 5 TDs. Senior East Carolina FBS QB transfer Blake Kemp has filled in admirably for Case Cookus this season by throwing at a 62% completion rate (133-214) along with 1480 yards and 12 TDs with only 3 interceptions. Kemp is a lefty so don’t underestimate the preparation difference for the defense and corners specifically – it’s just a different deal for everyone.
The ground game is based off inside zone and counter looks, some of which will come out the wildcat. The rushing attack is led by Joe Logan, who has 645 yards on 90 carries (7.2 avg) and 4 TDs.
Defensively – NAU employs a base 4-3 look most of the time. They prefer to get pressure with their defensive line and let their linebackers read and react. Like most every other Big Sky defense, NAU plays man-to-man a majority of the game at corner and have their free safety over the top. They will line up in a Cover 2 look at times vs. bigger sets.
NAU is 2nd in the Big Sky in scoring defense to only UND, giving up 25 pts/game. They are giving up 395 yds/game total, which is 5th in the Big Sky. NAU is giving up 138 yds/game on the ground, which bodes well for UND and is somewhat misrepresented being they have played a majority of teams that pass as much or more than they run the ball. NAU has seven interceptions on the year.
As a team, NAU is +8 in turnover margin (4th in Big Sky – UND is #1 at +13).
The big playmaker on the Lumberjack defense is DE #90 Siupeli Anau (6’3-250). On the year Anau has amassed 13 TFL’s and 7.5 sacks. He is a disruptive force on the end of the line, no doubt. UND has had trouble in recent weeks with stronger defensive ends, which makes his matchup with UND LT Michael Coe and RT Bryce Blair all the more interesting. We are assuming A.J. Stockwell will not play this week due to injury.
Linebacker #44 Jake Thomas is the leading tackler on the team with 67. He also has 3.5 TFL’s and 1 INT. Thomas is very active and one of the better linebackers in the Big Sky Conference.
North Dakota (8-2) Keys to Win The Game
- UND linebackers dropping into coverage. Nobody has been able to get pressure on NAU yet this year. Which means UND needs to be able to cover. Help from the LB’s dropping into zones will allow the secondary time to react.
- Control the ball/clock. NAU is a rhythm offense and if they aren’t on the field they cannot get in rhythm. UND has successfully taken Sac State and Northern Colorado out of their game by controlling the ball on offense.
- No slow starts. NAU has jumped out to early leads several times this year. They are not the type of offense you want to get up early.
- Get pressure on the QB with a 4-man rush. Opportunities will be limited because NAU’s tendency to get the ball out quick.
- Win the special teams battle. Lumberjacks are 12-15 on FGs so far. UND is 14-22.
The Prediction
This is the game that UND players, coaches and fans have been waiting for since the D1 era began 5 years ago. UND Football is playing for a Big Sky Conference championship. A win secures at least a home playoff game and probably a top 8 seed and first round bye. New heights for a program that finished 3-8 just 3 years ago.
UND has played 11 straight weeks this season…no bye week. After starting the season with two road losses by a combined 5 points, the Hawks have reeled off 8 straight victories all while fighting through numerous injuries with no time to heal up. Can they do it one more week for all the marbles? It isn’t going to be easy and will be a four-quarter game but we think so. NAU comes in red hot.