The Hawks are coming off a breakthrough spring season that saw the program vault to heights it had never reached in the FCS era.

Thunder Lake Lodge

Now it’s time to see if they can sustain it.  We all know the spring season was “odd” and had several programs not competing. Teams like South Dakota State and Sam Houston were major beneficiaries, while the traditional powers took a step back.

The big question on everyone’s mind is what will happen now when we are back to a typical fall schedule.

  • Can the Hawks make the playoffs for a 4th time in the last 6 seasons?
  • Can UND beat NDSU for the first time since 2003 (which is also the last time the Bison came to the Alerus Center)?
  • Can the interior offensive lineman mature fast enough to keep Danny Freund’s offense near the top of the league and allow Otis Weah to run wild on the MVFC?
  • Can the UND defensive front hold up through an 11 game schedule vs. teams that want to run the ball right at them?

Something to also remember is every team in the country returns the majority of their starters due to Covid.  Most teams are going to have at least 18-20 starters back.

A lot of question marks but let’s jump right into it!

Week 1 – UND at Idaho State

If you asked which team I would NOT schedule in a non-conference series you would probably be stunned when you heard my answer.  JMU – fine.  NDSU – ok.  SHSU – sure.  Idaho State – hell no! The Bengals, for whatever reason, have UND’s number and when I heard that they scheduled a home-home with them I was stunned.

The Hawks were 2-3 against the Bengals in Big Sky play with the last game in 2019 being a 55-20 blowout loss at Holt Arena, the site of this game.  For some reason the spread offense that Rob Phenicie runs give the UND 3-4 fits.  They isolate matchups and get it out quick negating the pressure that the Hawks like to bring.

The Bengals were picked 9th in the Big Sky, which is nothing new for them.  They are usually a team that is picked low, knocks off a contender, loses badly to several others and ends up with a losing record. Can UND exorcise the demons of Holt Arena and the Bengal Nation to start out 1-0?  I think so – this Hawks team is different.  UND 34  ISU 27

Week 2 – UND at Utah State (FBS)

The Aggies were picked 5th in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference.  They have a new coach in former Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson, who had a very successful tenure with the Red Wolves leading them to six bowl games.  They only return one preseason all-conference player in return-man Savon Scarver, who is a threat everytime he touches the ball.

The Aggies open with Washington State next weekend so UND will have tape on the new-look Aggies, who brought in a boatload of transfers over the past year. The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS Sports Network.

This will be a tough one to predict and I feel that Utah State will be better than expected. Back to back road games in the same part of the country may be dicey for the Hawks.  Utah State 31  UND 18.

Week 3 – UND vs. Drake

The home opener and annual Potato Bowl vs. Drake should be just what the doctor ordered by this time of the season. The Hawks return home to take on a familiar foe in Drake of the Pioneer Conference.  The Hawks are 3-0 vs Drake all-time.

The Bulldogs are typically a tough-minded team, play very good defense and win tight games. Drake was picked third in the Pioneer League preseason poll.

UND blew them out in 2019 by a score of 47-7 and I expect a similar result this time.  The Bulldogs head out to Bozeman to take on Montana State the week before so we will know what to expect based on that result.  UND 44  Drake 13

Week 4 – UND vs NDSU

The Bison roll into the Alerus Center for the first time in 18 years.  The last time they play in Grand Forks was the epic 28-21 OT win by the Sioux that went down as one of the best games ever in the series. In the D1 era, UND is 0-3 vs. NDSU with all games being played in Fargo.

The health of UND coming into this game will be a major key.  If the Hawks come off their bye week at full health they got a shot at the upset.  Any early season injuries at key positions will hurt immensely.

As we saw last year in the Fargodome, stopping the Bison rushing attack will be the key to the game.  If UND does that somewhat effectively they got a shot.  If NDSU runs for 300+ yards again and chew up clock, keeping the UND offense on the sideline, and demoralizing the crowd then it will be lights out for the home team.

The Hawks are one of the best home teams in the country, almost completely different than they are on the road.  With the interior of the offensive line a major question mark I am hesitant to pick the good guys in this one. Otis Weah has to run the show again this fall for UND to be a contender and it will be tough to get him going consistently in this one.  NDSU 24  UND 20.

Week 5 – UND at South Dakota

This one is tricky.  The Yotes are perennially a solid program and one that UND has a long history with.  This used to be a decent rivalry when they played for Sitting Bull and I can see it escalating again as they are now in the same conference.

Bob Nielson came to Vermillion with big expectations as he had won multiple national championships at Duluth (D2) and took Western Illinois to the playoffs. Things haven’t quite gone as planned, however, as the Coyotes under Nielson have only made the playoffs once in his six season as the helm and are 22-29 since his arrival.

The DakotaDome is a tough place to play.  Coming off the NDSU game may be a major letdown spot for the Hawks. The Coyotes take on Indiana State at home the previous week so no letdown in sight.  USD is picked 8th in the preseason poll but like I said is always a tough matchup as the talent is there.

The Coyotes major issue last spring was offensive line play.  If that isn’t shored up then UND could have the advantage once again as we saw the Hawks dominate up front in their 21-10.  This will be a physical, tight game.  UND 31  USD 27.

Week 6 – UND at Southern Illinois

The Salukis are going to be out for blood after the 44-21 ass-kicking UND put on them in Week 1 of the spring season.  They were not ready to play and it showed.  SIU did, however, get better as the season went on and made the playoffs, beating Weber State in the opening round before falling to SDSU in a tight affair.

I am not as high as others on SIU based on the fact they still don’t have a quarterback.  They just named Nic Baker the starter but he wasn’t all that impressive last spring in his limited time.

SIU is always talented but doesn’t seem to have much in the form of consistency.  They clobbered NDSU early in the season but lost by 41 to SDSU at home at the end of the season.

I got a bad feeling about this one.  The Hawks are going to need to play a 3-phase complete game to win on the road in back-to-back weeks.  SIU 28  UND 24

Week 7 – UND vs Western Illinois

Coming off the SIU loss I fully expect UND to return home and kick six different kinds of dog crap out of the Leathernecks.  WIU is picked last in the MVFC preseason poll and should struggle mightily this fall.

UND beat the Leathernecks 38-21 in Macomb last spring and I expect a larger margin of victory in this one.  UND 41  WIU 6

Week 8 – UND at Missouri State

The Bears are going to be better than they were last spring, which was an improved squad from before Bobby Petrino’s arrival.  He once again brought in a bunch of transfers so by the time this game comes around they might be playing better ball.

Much like USD, the Bears issues were upfront on the offensive side of the ball.  Did they address those over the summer? It sounds like Jason Shelley, a transfer from Utah State who spent his first three season at Utah, is going to win the starting job at quarterback, taking over for the departed Matt Struck.  Missouri State has 34 transfers on their roster.

The Bears are going to be much better than they were last spring when UND shellacked them 44-10 in the first round of the playoffs.  Plus this game is on the road.  No matter. UND 34  MSU 24

Week 9 – UND vs Youngstown State

The Penguins are definitely rebuilding under 2nd year coach Doug Phillips. YSU went 1-6 in the spring season and never really got any traction other than almost upsetting SDSU at home.

The defense is always a handful and typically has stud athletes, such as ILB Grant Dixon.  The offense has been a different story.  Watching them in the spring was like watching clips of 1940 Army vs Navy game.  Zone read handoff or pull the RPO and hit the tight end for 6 yards. Rinse, repeat. Jaleel Mclaughlin is the guy to stop at running back – do that and your chances of winning are very good.

The Penguins are picked 9th in the MVFC preseason poll and haven’t had a winning season since 2017.  Hawks take care of business at home and keep their playoff lives afloat.  UND 24  YSU 13.

Week 10 – UND vs Illinois State

The perennially strong Redbirds took a big step back this past spring as they had a bunch of defections and never seemed to really engage, finishing 1-3 and cancelling the season early.

Brock Spack’s crew is picked to finish 7th in the MVFC but has a much better roster than that slot.  They always have a big, physical offensive and defensive lines, typically play close to the vest hoping to win it with defense & field position while wearing you out running the ball.  This formula has been tough on UND at times so they need to show they can stop a running attack that is so deliberate in what they want to do.

Being at home I lean UND as Illinois State may be out of contention by this point and the sense of urgency will be gone.  UND 21  ISU 14

Week 11 – UND at South Dakota State

This game could prove to be quite pivotal for the Hawks and Jackrabbits.  7-4 is usually the cutoff for at-large bids and there is a chance both are in that 3-4 loss range.

SDSU broke through to reach the national championship game this past spring, dropping a heart-breaker to Sam Houston 23-21.  They did lose star freshman QB Mark Gronowski in the process, which led to them landing Samford transfer QB Chris Oladokun, who was just named the starter the other day.

Without Oladokun the Jacks may have been in trouble but are now sitting in a good spot to win the conference.  The Jackrabbits were picked to win the MVFC this fall.

Much like SIU, revenge will be on the mind of the Jacks when UND comes to town.  The Hawks beat them 28-17 last spring, a win that springboarded them to the playoffs.

This is tough matchup for UND as the Rabbits always have a physical bunch up front and are playing at home, outside in the cold November weather.  SDSU 23  UND 14


There you have it Hawks fans.  I see the 2021 UND Football team going 7-4 and more importantly making the playoffs!

I would love to hear your thoughts on how you feel the season plays out.  Comment below with your record prediction!