The Sioux have ended the first half of the season at 4-2 and this week they have an extremely well-timed bye week. Most fans would have predicted the Sioux to be 3-3 at this point so that is a positive. The most important game of the season is coming up next, however, with Cal-Poly coming to the Alerus Center on October 22nd.
Let’s take a look at some first half offensive statistics and see if they can show us any marked improvements or deficiencies (UND has played 2 FBS opponents, 2 FCS opponents, but have also played 2 lower-level teams) We will admit it is hard to draw exact comparisons due to scheduling but it still shows enough to draw conclusions from:
- The Sioux offense is averaging 28.8 points/game which puts them 3rd in the GWC. This is a 6 pt/game improvement over last season.
- The Sioux offense is averaging a league-low 306 yards per game, which is about what they averaged in 2010. While they have been oportunistic in their possessions, this must improve in the 2nd half of the year. 400 yards per game would put them on top of the conference and Top 35 in the country.
- To average 28 pts/game while only gaining 306 yds/game is pretty good.
- The rushing game has carried them since the Fresno State game. Huge turnaround this year in the running game as they are averaging 185 yds/game which puts them 3rd in the GWC. That is just fine considering Cal Poly runs the veer/triple option and will always be first. Last season the Sioux averaged 120 yds/game. Massive turnaround. We feel that Coach Mussman taking over the offensive line coaching has made a big difference in their play.
- The passing game right now concerns us……a lot. We think that is being kind. Tom Miller from the Grand Forks Herald also had a good writeup on this and mentioned it in his article extensively. The passing game is averaging a GWC-low 121 yds/game. That puts them 10 yds/game behind Cal-Poly, who runs the ball most of the game. As most Sioux fans would attest, this is the one area of the team that needs drastic improvement in the 2nd half of the season.
- QB Joey Bradley, the sophomore JUCO transfer, has done a decent job of running a smooth offense and being a “game manager” if you will, but the Sioux need more out of him in the second half – much more. He is only completing 56% of his passes. In this conservative, run first offense, that number needs to be in the 60’s for them to keep teams respecting the passing game. There have been some nice deep balls this season but there have also been some errant shorter passes that absolutely need to be completed. You can bet your house that Cal-Poly is going to have 8 guys up around the line of scrimmage daring the Sioux to beat them through the air. On top of that, they will have to deal with NFL prospect/Poly cornerback Asa Jackson on half of the field. Bradley is going to have to make them respect the passing game early or that Sioux running game may never get going.
- UND’s passing efficiency rating is 104, by far the worst in the GWC.
- The Sioux are #1 in the GWC in red-zone efficiency with a scoring rate of 91%, going 21-23. 16 TD’s and 5 FG’s. This would put them in the Top 15 in the nation. Like we said, they are opportunistic when they do mount a drive.
- The Sioux have been pretty good on 3rd down this year with a 44% conversion rate, good for 2nd in the GWC. In 2010, the Sioux were converting at a 33% rate. Another huge improvement.
- The offensive line has given up 10 sacks on the year through the first 6 games. There has been marked improvement in the last 4 games, however.
- The Sioux are +4 in turnover margin. Huge turnaround from last season’s -10. QB Joey Bradley has a lot to do with that, only throwing 1 INT on the year.
- Jake Miller is the GWC leader in rushing yds/game with 116/game (10th in the nation) and nobody is even close. He also has an astounding 12 TD’s in the first 6 games of the year, by far the most in the conference and it would tie him for 2nd in the nation in total TD’s. Not bad for the sophomore from Bismarck, ND.
- The Sioux have been a very disciplined bunch this season. They lead the GWC in fewest penalties with 35 for an average of 46 yards per game. What we haven’t seen this year is the dumb 15 yard penalties that plagued last year’s team. They are also drawing the most opponent penalty yards in the GWC with 61 yds/game.
- The offensive line is going to be something to watch in the second half of the season. With the loss of starting Jr. guard Emmett Lynch, the Sioux have now lost two starters for the season (Sr. Brandon Quesenberry). This will most certainly thrust Fr. Shea Walker in to the mix while also moving other around to find the best combination. The OL and DL were the two positions where they could ill afford injuries and both of them got hit hard in the same week.
Bright Spots: Jake Miller, Jer Garman, OL run-blocking, turnover ratio, game management by Joey Bradley.
Disappointments: Lack of involvement of Greg Hardin in offense, QB passing consistency, lack of vertical passing success, overall pass protection, dropped passes, development and improvement of WRs Blair Townsend & Tyrhe Ivery.
As you can see, the Sioux have been great on the ground and poor through the air. Some of this has to do with UND’s game plans and opponents strength’s and weaknesses. However, after watching the games there is no doubt that there is much room for improvement in the passing game. The weapons are there with Hardin, McGill, Nichols, etc. As we said earlier, it is going to have to improve as the upcoming defenses are going to challenge the run and dare the Sioux to pass.
Nice write up Oskie. A huge concern to me the first part of this year has been dropped passes. I know you mentioned it in the write up. When you have a passing game that is struggling at times like ours, we need to catch the ball when the opportunities are there. Hopefully we see that improve in the 2nd half of the schedule. We have the talent to run the table the rest of the way, or we could go 2-3. Either way, this is the part of the schedule where we should all get a good feel for where we are at.
Agreed Homer. This next game against Poly could set the tone for the rest of the season. Win and they are 2-0 in the GWC and in the drivers seat for the conference championship.
Is Ivery in the doghouse? Is he just not as good as we thought he would be?
Your guess is as good as ours. We have heard nothing but good things about his athletic ability, etc. Being a freshman, we are assuming it is an issue with learning the offense and also being behind McGill and Hardin. We hope he continues to progress because the talent is definitely there.
Great first half recap. I know i’m not alone when I say this, but the failure to throw the ball downfield to Hardin is mind boggling. We will go a full half of football without even trying to stretch the field.
I have noticed Blair Townsend being used in more of a TE role on the field. Looking at his body type it looks like he could put on additional weight and become a true pass catching TE weapon running the seem routes. Are they looking at Townsend in that type of role?
We have not heard that but it is definitely an interesting thought. He would be an immediate threat at the TE position. Blocking may be an issue though.
The passing game just has not clicked and I am not sure that it is one thing but a combination of several things that has prevented it from moving forward. At first you saw.. tripping coming out from under center and not looking comfortable in the pocket. Then it was dropped passes and poorly thrown deep balls. Then it was crossed up route and lack of protection.. (it is shame that they can not get a screen pass to work – because Jer or Miller would thrive on that type of pass). Swing passes with the ball batted down at the line of scrimmage, under thrown and then dropped. The timing of the passing game is just off. I see the talent and potential but I think I just have to give more time. When it starts to click with the running game going the way it is… the offense has potential.
I believe that the emphasis on a return to “Sioux Football” that was stated a number of times by Coach Mussman in the spring and fall pre-season is as much a reason for the perceived lack of passing success as anything. The O Line has become a run blocking machine and that does not happen without a lot commitment and practice reps. I think that Coach Mussman has done an outstanding job coaching up the O Line. We all know there is only so much time at each practice and I suggest that the outstanding run game results indicate that run blocking and the run game in general has taken the majority of the O reps in practice. It’s a coaching decision that has created positive results, now let’s see if they want and can do the same with the passing game???? I believe that we have the arm and the receivers to do it but it does take a mind set and a lot of practice reps to get their chemistry and timing in sync. GO SIOUX!!!
Couldn’t say it any better. Nice job.
Nicely stated and I agree it is going to take more time and reps unfortunately the extra time this week will be replacing injuried players. I am looking forward to the Poly game.
Let’s also not forget the contribution of Greg Lotysz, who also works with the OL now again. Between he and Muss and the experience of being another year older and moe experienced, I think we can see huge improvements on the o-line play this year as compared to Rod Carey’s o-lines of the past few years.
How is Lotysz doing health-wise?
As far as we know, we have no reason to believe he’s not doing great as always. He’s as animated as ever on the sidelines still with his offensive line.