Spring 2016 Preview – UND Offense

The UND offense definitely took a step forward in 2015.  Although some of the ranks below don’t look that great, UND has established itself as a run-first, ‘normal’ tempo team, which inhibits some of those numbers (passing).

OC Paul Rudolph did a nice job evolving the offense to feature true freshman star running back John Santiago.  Rudolph saw what they had after the season opening Wyoming win. He then appropriately installed packages that involved multiple tight ends and fullbacks to get Santiago the ball with room to shake and make the first guy miss.

Here is our projection of the spring offensive depth chart.  The only certainty is that it will be wrong or different than what is officially released.  Guys might be shuffled and moved around to different spots, specifically at WR and/or OL.  Also, this is our projection for Day 1 of spring ball, not what we feel it will be after 10-12 practices, or even after the spring game.  As always, please take this at face value:

2015 UND Offense (Big Sky Ranking)

Scoring Offense = 28.1 (9th)

Total Offense =379.5 yds/game (10th)

Rushing Offense = 238.6 (3rd)

Passing Offense = 140.9 yds/game (12th)

Third Down Offense = 39.6% (6th)

Time of Possession = 31:54 (3rd)

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Offensive Returning Starters = Six (6)

Quarterback (1)

Keaton Studsrud will enter spring ball as the starter.  Studsrud was the 2015 starter at quarterback for UND, going 7-2 in games that he played in (missed two game due to injury).  Studsrud ran a very efficient offense last fall and backed up the coaches decision to make him the starter in fall camp.  As you can see by his stats above, completing 60% of passes and a 12 TD to 3 INT ratio is a solid season.

Ryan Bartels will return for his senior season and will be battling for the backup job.  He played sparingly in relief of Studsrud, going 0-2 in those starts.  Will be interesting to see how Bartels does in the spring knowing he is the backup.  Hopefully, his senior leadership will be something that can help Studsrud and Heidlebaugh.

Freshman Brad Heidlebaugh will certainly be looking to win the #2 spot behind Studsrud come fall camp.  This spring is huge for Heidlebaugh as it’s his first true shot at running UND’s offense.  We have heard nothing but good things about his work ethic and most importantly his intelligence when it comes to football.  A ‘very cerebral QB’ is one way to describe Heidlebaugh.

Running Back (1)

John Santiago.  They now know what they got with Mr. Santiago.  An All-American, game breaker who is one of the best in the country.  He will get reps all spring but will more than likely work on other parts of his game, like blitz-pickup and catching the ball out of the backfield.

It will be interesting to see how Brady Oliveira (out) has recovered from his late season knee injury, which turned out to be much less serious than everyone had initially thought.  Oliveira will be out for this spring due to his knee injury.

We believe Iwarri Smith will be playing WR this spring and more than likely permanently moving forward.  Spring ball will be big for him to get acclimated to the position and work on technique.  We know he’s a burner in a straight line, but can he wiggle and shake away corners and safeties and get open in the secondary?  How are his hands?  Time will tell.

Kyle Norberg filled in admirably when called on last season as shown by his 5.3 yards per carry average.  Will still be a valuable depth guy moving forward, and could potentially be better served playing a little fullback on certain personnel packages.

Word has it that Oscar Nevermann could have been the starting RB in week 1 last season, had he been eligible.  We all know how that worked out thanks to Craig Bohl.  Based on everything we have heard, Nevermann will be a punishing, physical back in the running back stable.

We think everyone will be pleasantly surprised at the ability of ‘under the radar’ freshman running back Austin Gordon.  Reviews of him on the field and in the weight room have been glowing.  One to watch this spring.

Once considered a huge weak spot, the running back position has turned into a big strength.  The depth here would seem to be bulletproof for next season.

Wide Receiver (2)

The wide receiver corps got better as the season went on in 2015.  What was a weakness in 2014 slowly became a steady, reliable threat for QB Keaton Studsrud.  This position is not where it needs to be in the Big Sky quite yet, but this group is solid, improving and has some playmakers returning.

Sophomore Luke Stanley had a breakout freshman season for UND last fall.  At 6’4″, Stanley created some size mismatches that UND sorely lacked in the past.  His speed is probably considered average but his route running and blocking appear to be ahead of schedule.  Stanley also showed his versatility by lining up inside and outside and even taking a few jet motion plays here and there.  We expect a lot out of him this spring.

You can’t have all fast, speedy, “numbers” guys at WR.  While it ceratinly helps to have a lot of that, you also have to have your junk yard dog possession-type WRs who will do anything asked of them, with or without the ball.  Josh Seibel fits this mold.  The junior from Bismarck will be counted on for leadership from here on out and has played a lot of football already.  While we expected more from him on the stat sheet last year, we absolutely love his attitude and grinder mentality on the field.  We think he’s contagious – in a good way.

It took a while to get going last season, but the biggest play threat came from senior-to-be and PAC-12 transfer Clive Georges.  Toward the end of the year, Georges was consistently making big plays down the field vertically when opposing defenses would put more guys in the box to stop the run game.  We see him being an even bigger contributor this spring and into next fall.  Has shown the shake and wiggle to make tacklers miss, which is something that has been missing.

This will be a big spring for junior Brandon Walker, who needs to assert himself more, play with more confidence, and make the plays that are presented to him.  After not redshirting in 2014, his presence and impact on the field the last 2 seasons have been minimal.  Walker needs to take control this spring and show he has matured physically and mentally.  No reason he shouldn’t be a consistent, reliable contributor in the passing game.  He has the tools.

Carter Blackwell is a bit of a mystery at WR.  We don’t know much about the freshman from Dickinson other than he was a heck of a hurdler in high school and should be a Seibel type of WR.  He is a guy to watch this spring for evaluation purposes.

Freshman Tim Dulin will bring a huge frame to the wide receiver corps this spring.  Dulin is all of 6’5″ but is still lean at 190.  He is the typical tall lanky WR that we see in the Big Sky.  The sky is the limit for this kid but he has a lot of work in front of him.  Between the weight room and the HPC, if he puts the work in he will be a factor this fall.

Alex Reed was hurt most of the 2015 season so he will be a bit of an X factor at the WR position.  The juco transfer is a slot type of receiver and will be one to watch to figure out what he brings to the field.

Tight End/Fullback (1)

UND loses starting tight end/fullback Zach Adler, who was a jack-of-all-trades for the UND offense.  UND does however, return their three main tight ends, which will be big for the continuity of the running game.  The biggest issue with this group will be who replaces Adler’s 18 catches and 3 TD’s from last season.

Senior Luke Mathewson has turned himself into one of the great locker room guys on the team.  He is a solid blocking tight end and a  leader on the offense.  This spring will not be huge for Mathewson developmental-wise but his leadership will be vital.

Sophomore Luke Fiedler has the physical size at 6’5″-230 to create some mismatches in the passing game but hasn’t shown the ability to do it consistently as of yet.  We will be watching Fiedler this spring to see if his role is going to evolve in the offense.

Sophomore Jacob Francis is a former offensive lineman who will counted on to fill in for Adler at the hybrid TE/FB role.  Francis is very good point of attack blocker and should find a much bigger role this spring/fall.

The X-factor of the position group is former QB turned TE Joe Mollberg.  The senior from Detroit Lakes has decided to spend his senior season playing a new position as there wasn’t going to be a chance to see the field at QB any longer.  Judging by his athletic history we are guessing he will be a flex TE type who would be more a receiving threat than blocker.

Freshman Josh Leonhard is a guy that surprised during his first camp last fall.  It was even rumored that the staff may pull his redshirt if needed.  They didn’t and now he is in the mix for playing time at the important fullback position in this running offense.

Sophomore Tyler Coyne injured his knee last fall and we have not heard if he is healed up enough to practice this spring but we are guessing he will be.  He would be a guy, like Leonhard, who could get reps at fullback.

Offensive Line (1)

OL Coach Luke Knauf has his work cut out for him this spring.  He lost all-conference performers in Sean Meehan, Brandon Anderson and Colton Boas on his offensive line.  The job Knauf has done with this group in his two short years here has been outstanding.  Which gives us confidence in the current group of UND lineman.

To add to the heartache, however, is that the UND offensive line will only have eight total players this spring.  That presents an issue with rotations as they need five in there at all times.  I assume they will constantly switch up who ‘double-reps’.

A positive is the “iron-eight” will get a ton of reps this spring.  This isn’t a bad thing considering they need to replace four starters.

Starting left tackle junior AJ Stockwell is the only returning starter along the offensive line.  Stockwell finally got healthy this past year and played pretty well at left tackle, starting all 11 games in 2015.  He showed a real nasty streak in his run blocking and overall play, which unfortunately led to a few untimely personal fouls.  We fully believe he will mature as a player and be a solid force out at left tackle.  At 6’7-315 and possessing great athleticism, Stockwell has the ability to be a good one for UND.

Junior Mat Cox started three games at right tackle last year and is the favorite to lock up the job this spring.  Cox has good size and athleticism to play multiple positions along the offensive line.  He did dabble at center a bit last fall but settled in at tackle.

Demon Taylor will be fighting for the starting nod at right guard.  The sophomore saw action in several games last fall and like Stockwell brings a nasty style of play to the guard spot.  Taylor is a bit inconsistent right now and has to learn how to play each play at the same intensity level.   When he does he will be a dominant player on the inside.

Junior Dan Bell will be the potential starter at left guard this spring.  Bell has progressed slowly in his time at UND but has impressed the coaches.  He is a guy that needs to take the next step, NOW.  The ability is there and UND sorely needs him to step up and own one of the guard spots.

Trying to replace Boas at center will be a tall task.  The undersized Boas did an great job at getting the line into the right call and gave everything he had every play to make himself effective.  Sophomore Grant Aplin is cut from that same mold.  At 6’1″, Aplin is undersized by OL standards but he makes up for it with brute strength.  His biggest obstacle will be making the calls from his center position and holding his own vs. much bigger nose guards.

Battling Aplin at center will be freshman Patric Rooney.  Rooney is a bit more prototypical in size (6’3″-275) and showed good speed and athleticism in his high school highlights.  This lends well to being able to get out and block on the perimeter or out on linebackers.  However, he is untested and making the calls will also be an issue while he learns the UND blocking schemes.

Sophomore Adam Stiner will be fighting for one of the backup tackle spots.  Stiner has been a work in progress during his time at UND but we have heard nothing but good things about his work ethic and progression.  Reps this spring and next fall will be huge for his development has he completes two full years in the program.

Freshman Bryce Blair is a guy we will have our eye on this spring.  The kid was a mauler out at Cherry Creek HS in Colorado but was undersized at only 240 in high school.  He is reportedly up to around 265 so he is getting closer to where he needs to be but is still undersized for a tackle.  Blair is the most athletic offensive lineman and runs like a deer.  Reps, reps and more reps for Blair, as it is with any freshman.

Brandon Miller (out) was the 2015 early season starter at right guard before injuring his shoulder and sitting out the rest of the season.  Miller did a decent job during his time but will now be in a three-way battle with Taylor and Bell for the two guard spots.  The health of his shoulder will play a big part in his progression this spring.  Miller has been declared OUT for spring practice.