The Game Vitals
Game Time – 1:05 pm.
Opponent – Northern Colorado Bears
Game Notes – UND
TV – None
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – WatchBigSky
Spread – UND -7.5. Total = 59.5
Northern Colorado (5-3) Breakdown
— Offense = Spread
— Defense = 4-3/3-4
Offensively – Offensively, the Bears are about 55-45 pass to run so far this year – a nicely balanced attack. They like to run out 11 and 12 personnel groupings primarily but will also run out of two back sets in 21 and 20 every now and then. In the run game, they like to use zone blocking concepts out of the shotgun. Inside zone, outside zone and ISO are their bread and butter.
UNC is dynamic in the passing game as they will do pretty much everything from 3-step, 5-step, play action and boot. The deep crossing route (sail route) is always a concern, as well as shallow crossers, curls and posts.
Senior QB #8 Kyle Sloter is throwing the ball at a 64% clip and has passed for 1,858 yards 19 TDs and 7 interceptions. Wide receiver #87 Stephen Miller is a bigger 6-3, 205 pound target who leads the team with 39 catches for 722 yards and 2 TDs – that’s a healthy 18.2 yards per catch.
Talented sophomore RB #27 Trae Riek leads the rushing attack again this season with 645 yards and 3 TDs on a 5.8 average. Riek is also a huge threat in the passing game and they will move him around and put him in motion to create mismatches and throw screens and wheel routes to him. He is the real deal.
The UNC offense enters the game averaging 36 points and 448 yards per game. 258 yards of that comes through the air, with 190 coming on the ground. Again, some nice balance in that attack.
On the UND defensive side of the ball, the deep crossing routes and perimeter screen game have to be on the mind of DC Eric Schmidt. With the UNC running game being effective this season, it will be interesting to see how he attacks them early.
We imagine it will be ‘cat and mouse’ game early on to feel them out and see what the Bears offense wants to do and make adjustments from there. We know the UND defense wants to be aggressive as always and get pressure to the QB. The big question will be how often UND is able to get there with a 4-man rush. This will dictate how much blitzing will be done later in the game.
Personnel-wise, it sounds like UND will bring Austin Cieslak to Greeley. Taj Rich is still out.
Defensively – The Bears operate out of a base 4-3 system but will morph into a 3-4 for some series. Then, go back to a 4-3. Not quite sure why but they do. This means the UND offensive line and whoever is playing QB will need to identify the front each and every play.
The Bear defense has been getting gashed in 2016 to the tune of 37 pts/game. They are allowing 486 yds/game of total offense (12th in Big Sky) with 208 of that via the ground. These numbers bode well for UND and their rush heavy attack. UNC is also allowing teams to convert at a 46% clip on third down, which is 11th in the Big Sky Conference.
The strength of the Bears defense would be wherever #9 Mikhail Dubose is lined up. The 6’2″-255 senior DE is a force and very tough to handle for most offensive lineman. He has a powerful punch and has twitch to beat the guy across from him. On the year Dubose has 41 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, and 2 sacks. The UND tackles and tight ends need to do better this week vs. Dubose than they did last week vs. Weber’s OLB’s and DE’s.
There will be opportunities for UND to make plays via the ground game, we know that. But, in the passing game there will be as well. Northern Colorado only has one interception in 8 games this year. That tells us that they may have issues playing the ball in the air. With UND’s wide receivers going 6’4, 6’3 and 6’2 it should translate to opportunities to go up and get the ball over the shorter UNC secondary.
Regarding the status of QB Keaton Studsrud, based on everything we are hearing it would be a big surprise if he played Saturday. There are obvious issues with his shoulder that are probably too much to get worked out in one week. That tells us senior QB Ryan Bartels will get the start with Brad Heidelbaugh also taking some snaps, depending on the package/time of game.
The key for Bartels on Saturday is this: do not turn the ball over. Part of that is on Bartels, part of that is on OC Paul Rudolph. Simple, safe throws will be available and need to be completed. If Bartels can connect with his taller WR’s on 6 or 7 back-shoulder fades, posts, etc. UND will win the game.
North Dakota (7-2) Keys to Win The Game
- On defense, cover the crossing routes, specifically the deep sail route.
- Limit the perimeter screen game. Pursue and rally to the ball and tackle well.
- Get pressure up front (hopefully with only 4 man rush) and don’t allow the QB to let the longer routes develop. Make him check down.
- This game is squarely on the shoulders of the UND Offensive Line. If they play the way they did vs. Cal Poly and Southern Utah, UND will win the game. If they play the way they did last week UND could be in trouble.
- OC Paul Rudolph: call a game that enables UND to win with Ryan Bartels at QB (or Heidelbaugh). Keaton can throw into tighter windows with more zip than those two. Digs, slants and so forth are going to be tougher for Ryan to complete than one-on-one outside routes.
- Punter Austin Dussold needs to redeem himself in the thin air of Greeley, CO. Dussold was uncharacteristically off last week with low, wobbling punts. This week he will be a huge factor in helping out the defense with field position.
- Kick Coverage. Needs to be exponentially better this week. UNC has not been a great return team this year so let’s hope it stays that way.
The Prediction
Seven wins gets you a pat on the head. Eight wins gets you a seat at the table.
This is Northern Colorado’s biggest game in a long, long time. They are jacked up and itching to beat UND and prove they have taken the next step. It won’t be easy like the last two years. UNC is a better team this year and playing with more confidence.
Just Win Baby. We don’t care how. Fake punt, double-reverse pass, whatever. If they are needed, use them. Just Win Baby.
With a win UND is playing for their first ever Big Sky Championship next Saturday.
North Dakota 24
Northern Colorado 19
