The Game Vitals

download

Game Time – 3:00CT

Rumors

Opponent – Montana State Bobcats.  Bozeman, MT.

Game Notes –  UND

TV – Midco Sports Network

Radio – UND Radio Network

Online Streaming – WatchBigSky

Spread – Montana State -2.5.   Total =54

Montana State Breakdown

— Offense = Spread

— Defense = 3-4

Offensively –  The Bobcat offense is still a spread look, similar to last season.  A ton of 11 personnel (1 RB-1TE-3WR) to try and spread you out and then run the ball vs. a thinner box.  They move at a fairly good pace, much like USD did last week but will slow it down when needed.  They are nothing like last years MSU offense that moved fast and ran many different formations and trick plays.  They are much simpler but effective in what they do.

In 2016, MSU is averaging 33 pts/game and 331 yds/game.  Those numbers were inflated a bit last week as they pounded DII Western Oregon 55-0.  They scored 20 points vs. Idaho and 27 vs. Bryant (FCS) in their two previous games.  They are an extremely balanced offense with 113 rushing attempts and 104 passing attempts.

The Bobcats run a two-QB system.  Transfer #11 Tyler Bruggman is the main signal caller.  Bruggman is more of a pocket QB vs. freshman #8 Chris Murray who is the running QB.

Bruggman is 54-92 on the year for 528 yards and 6 TD’s.  From all accounts he is a very streaky QB who if allowed time and space can really get hot and pick apart defenses.  Murray is more of a straight-line type of runner with good speed.  He has ran the ball 18 times for 100 yards and only thrown seven passes.

MSU runs their two-headed RB attack most of the time.  RB #17 Chad Newell is back this week after missing a couple games with a hand injury.  He is the big inside bruising RB that hurt UND last year on several key third down runs.  He has amassed 105 yards on 25 carries in 2016.  RB #2 Gunnar Brekke is the smaller back but just as effective as Newell.  Brekke has 33 carries for 136 yards and 1 TD in 2016.  They will both get plenty of work vs. UND this weekend.

Defensively – The Bobcats have switched to a 3-4 look under new defensive coordinator Ty Gregorak, who infamously left the Montana Grizzlies last year to join the Bobcat’s staff.   They do present some multiple fronts but mostly will be in a 3-4 shell.

Montana State is giving up a paltry 15 pts/game in 2016.  Opponents are only averaging 331 yds/game vs. the Bobcats, with 129 coming via the ground game and 202 via the air.  Those are very respectable numbers.

Where MSU has been really good is takeaways.  They lead the nation in turnovers gained with an impressive 12.  They have intercepted 7 passes already, as well.  Their turnover margin is 11, which also lead the nation.  That is a pretty good recipe for outstanding football.

The leader of the Bobcat defense is #49 Mac Bignell.  He leads the team with 24 tackles, three TFL’s and one sack.  Bignell had a big day vs. UND last year in the shootout at the Alerus Center (44-38 UND) when he registered nine tackles and two TFL’s.

One time Bobcat commit, turned UND commit, turned Bobcat signee John Walker has been a bigtime play maker for MSU at safety.  The former Colorado Buffalo already has three interceptions and is shoring up their secondary nicely.  The Bobcat secondary was a major weakness last season.

This Bobcat defense is much, much better than the one that came in to the Alerus Center and laid down a welcome mat in front of the end zone for Santiago/Oliveira last year.  They are solid in their gaps and very fundamentally sound.

North Dakota Keys to Win The Game

  1.  Continue to play solid defense up front.  MSU is a fairly conservative version of last year’s offense that like to run at a fast speed and use a ton of trick plays.  This year they are much  more conventional in their play calling.  Stopping the run will hinder them greatly, as it would UND’s offense.
  2. Defend the big play.  Offenses like this want to take their shots.  If they don’t connect on those shots they are left trying to piece together 3-5 yard gains all day.  UND has done much better this year in defending deep passes, that is, when they line up and do their job.  The only big plays they have given up have come from blown coverages that should not have happened.  Play the defense called and good things happen.
  3. START FAST.  Please.  UND has gotten off to three very slow, very pedestrian starts this season and need to rectify that soon.  QB Keaton Studsrud has been bitten by that bug as well and it seems as he goes the offense goes.  In the fourth quarter Studsrud has been spectacular but it takes him two quarters to get it going.
  4. Pick up the pace, offense.  Lets see if moving at a bit of a brisker pace offensively, like the did in the second half last week, will jump start the UND offense.
  5. The defense has scored three TD’s and a safety this year.  Can they score again?

The Prediction

UND knows they cannot afford any slipups after the 1-2 start.  They came back last week to win a game they absolutely needed.  Now they need this game just as much.  With the return of DE Austin Cieslak, the UND defensive front should be up to the challenge this week.  The MSU defense is better but not as good as they have face this year.  The OL needs to come together this week to get Santiago and Oliveira loose again.  Last year in Week 4 they really came alive as a unit.  Same thing in 2016?

 

North Dakota  27

Montana State  23