The Game Vitals
Game Time – 1:00 CT
Opponent – Montana State Bobcats @ Alerus Center, Grand Forks, ND
Game Notes – UND
TV – Midco Sports Network Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – Eversport
Spread – MSU -8.5. Total = 67
Montana State (4-3) Breakdown
— Offense = Uptempo, Spread, Shotgun/Pistol. 3 WR’s.
— Defense = 4-3 (3-4 most of the year)
Last season UND went out to Bozeman and lost 29-18. The UND defense actually played very well in that game holding QB Dakota Prukop to -18 rushing yards. However, he was able to throw for 267 yards & 1 TD and the Bobcats also tallied a pick-six to upend UND.
Offensively, Montana State runs primarily out of shotgun in the pistol and will definitely try establish a run game with their power and power read plays. UND will be facing arguably the best QB in the Big Sky Conference in Prukop. He is a dual threat behind center and while his biggest challenge comes in the run/scrambling game, he is more than capable of beating you throwing as well. Prukop has rushed for 557 yards and 8 TDs while throwing for 2,062 yards and 18 more TDs. Quite frankly, he scares the hell out of us.
The Bobcats have shown an affinity to “max protect” and send out 2-3 WRs on routes. This has to be a concern for the UND defense. The corners have shown an inability to cover the deep ball lately in one on one coverage and if UND plans on blitzing, the problem is threefold: (1) getting pressure to Prukop when MSU max protects, (2) containing a dangerous Prukop in the pocket and on scrambling when things break down, and (3) leaving your corners locked up 1 on 1 with the Bobcat WRs.
Needless to say, there will be a feeling out process for UND defensively on Saturday. You could see UND sitting back more in zone this week to control Prukop. We imagine some sort of “spy” will be assigned to him on 3rd down, similar to what UND did earlier this season with Carson Wentz. We think Will Ratelle needs to have a big game this week in order to keep Prukop in check.
Personnel-wise, the Bobcats are solid on offense. Outside of Prukop however, we don’t see any other mismatch concerns at the skill spots or up front.
Statistically speaking, they are averaging almost 46 points and 540 yards of offense per game – impressive to say the least. The challenge for UND on defense will be to try and control the tempo of the game overall and stop it from turning into a shootout (something that won’t bode well for UND). The Bobcats will get their yards and move the ball. It will be up to the UND defense to hold them to FG’s from time to time when they drive it into UND territory.
Defensively, Montana State is a base 4-3 team (as of last week). They had been running a 3-4 but switched to a 4-3 vs. East Tennessee State due to “personnel reasons”. This tells us they were short on linebackers and needed to get use their depth at defensive line.
This season the Bobcat defense has been nothing short of a disaster. They made a defensive coordinator change in the off season when they added the title of ‘Co-Defensive Coordinator’ to linebacker coach Kane Loane. Longtime defensive coordinator Jamie Marshall stayed on as the other ‘Co-Defensive Coordinator’. The changes haven’t seemed to help.
On the season MSU is giving up 32 pts/game but those numbers are skewed by last week’s game where they gave up 7 points to FCS newcomer East Tennessee State. MSU has given up 14, 55, 28, 49, 13, 59, and 7 thus far in 2015.
The weak link for the Bobcats is their rushing defense. They are allowing 260 yards/game on the ground to go along with 14 TD’s. This is an area that is obviously advantageous to UND as they base their offense around the running game and trying to control possession.
UND is averaging 199 yards/game rushing, with RB John Santiago doing the heavy lifting at 117 per game. Santiago is 68 yards away from 1,000 for the season with 3 games to go. The safety play of the Bobcats has been a weakness in 2015 so getting Santiago to the second level is crucial this week.
Another stat in UND’s favor is the 47% 3rd down conversion percentage that MSU is allowing.
North Dakota (4-4) Keys to the Game
- Hold on to the football. UND fumbled the ball four more times this past weekend out in Missoula but was somehow able to fall on all of them. This is becoming a real problem and one of these game they are going to start losing the ball. UND has fumbled 18 times this year but luckily only lost 8 of them.
- Run the young bucks early and often. MSU has major issues with their run defense and are more than likely going to try and walk somebody down this week to help out. Pay it no mind. Run Santiago and Brady Oliveira right at them and control the tempo.
- There is a tiny chance QB Keaton Studsrud plays tomorrow but more than likely Ryan Bartels will be going again. The biggest thing UND needs to do tomorrow is throw the ball. Get some form of passing threat going to back off the MSU secondary and free up the box for the running game.
- UND Defensive Backs: Play the ball. If UND can just knock a couple long balls down early and/or pick one off that will change Prukop’s mindset for later in the game. If the “chuck-and-duck” works early like it has in previous weeks for UND’s opponents, MSU will keep doing more and more of it.
Prediction
North Dakota 39
Montana State 37
