The UND Football team lost to Montana by a score of 42-16 on Saturday. UND jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on John Santiago’s 80 yard TD run but eventually Montana took over the game through six Makena Simis TD passes.
I am not going to review the game as much as touch on points of the game that are part of the reason for the three game losing skid. It’s not hard to figure out why UND has lost the last three games, even while leading two of them in the 4th quarter.
Reason #1: QB Play. Lets break down the stats of starter Keaton Studsrud and backup Ryan Bartels first:
— GP Effic. Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yards TD
Keaton Studsrud 5.75 118.9 63-120-3 52.5 745 7
Ryan Bartels 2.25 104.6 22-49-2 44.9 278 3
Studsrud had his limitations in the passing game, mostly not going through progressions, not being accurate with short routes leading to limited YAC, and getting correct height on deep balls. However, he was improving slowly as one would expect for a true sophomore.
Studsrud’s true value was his scrambling and pure running ability. UND pretty much counted on him to run the ball through QB power or boot legs and he got real good at it as the season progressed (63 rushes – 309 yards – 3 TD’s). That part of the game plan was GONE once Studsrud went down.
Bartels has two years playing experience, one with the old staff and one with the new staff. He does not have the running ability of Studsrud and actually struggles to escape pressure in the pocket. This limits the playbook that OC Paul Rudolph had used the first 6 games.
The real problem is Bartels passing has not been anywhere near it needs to be. On Saturday he was inaccurate on far too many throws, namely the short crosser to a wide open Josh Seibel that would have went for 20+ yards. Bartels was 10-21-113 yards and 1 TD/1 INT on Saturday.
Also, Bartels throwing motion is so long that short routes are almost impossible to hit if the window isn’t huge or if he doesn’t start his “windup” early. He can throw longer routes because he has time to launch it but when he needs to zip a short, quick route he cannot do it.
This offense is predicated on the run, we all know that. The run game is going very good right now. The last three games UND has rushed for 270, 250, and 267 yards. That is excellent. Credit the offensive line and the vision/power of freshman RB’s John Santiago and Brady Oliveira.
What teams are doing is slowly loading up the box as the game goes on to try and stop it and UND cannot make them pay. The UND QB’s should have some of the easiest throws they will ever see due to one-on-one coverage and no LB help (at times) but now they cannot make the throw. Studsrud had his moments but missed some chances as well.
(To be fair, the windows for the QB’s to throw into aren’t the biggest. The UND WR’s struggle to get open. We know that.)
We will go as far as to say that UND almost has to start QB Joe Mollberg this week.
Reason #2: CB/S Play. The UND defensive backs are not playing well right now.
In the last three games, UND’s opponent’s have thrown for 1,026 yards and 13 TD’s.
In watching the TD passes that UND gave up the past few weeks, the UND defenders are usually within arm’s length of the WR or right with them. This tells us their footwork, hips and speed are sufficient.
The issue lies when the ball is coming down and it’s time to make a play. We have stated before that a DB should never look back until they have caught up and got into a dominant position on the WR. Only part of the time are the UND DB’s doing that correctly. There is usually a little space between them and the WR that allows the WR to be comfortable and go up and get the ball.
Young DB’s, which UND has plenty of, tend to not want to look back due to fear of losing track of the WR. However, we are now 8 games into the season and it’s time to start getting aggressive and making some plays. Hell, take a pass interference penalty if need be.
Unfortunately, the book is out. Throw it up and more times than not your WR will come down with it. That is a scary deal for UND if teams are thinking that way. Also, UND has ONE interception this season. In eight games. That statistic does not strike fear in opposing QB’s.
Montana State (4-3) is coming to town for a Halloween showdown this Saturday. The Bobcats are averaging 315 yds/game passing and per usual in the Big Sky they have a couple nice WR’s. There are no breaks in the Big Sky when it comes to pass defense.
