It’s that time again UND Football fans – the annual “Predict The Season” game by game breakdown. Last season I said the Hawks were going to be 7-4. They ended up 5-6 due to some unfortunate bounces in a couple games. I am back to right the ship in 2022.
The Hawks take on six ranked teams this season making this season’s schedule one of the toughest ever.
UND returns 13 total starters from last year’s team. Close but no cigar was the theme of the season as the Hawks lost four road games vs playoff teams – all by 7 points or less.
The schedule flips this season as UND has USD and SDSU at home but goes to NDSU. The Hawks also get UNI and Missouri State at home, which is a huge plus.
The home schedule is juicy where UND is 17-3 over the past four seasons. They are a different animal at home and we see that being a huge factor this season.
Week 1 – UND at Nebraska
FBS games have not been kind to UND since the transition to D1. They have won exactly ONE time when taking on an FBS opponent and that was vs. a down Wyoming squad in Craig Bohl’s second season.
This year they head down to Lincoln to take on a desperate Cornhusker squad that hasn’t lived up to expectations for several seasons now. Scott Frost is on the hot seat and thus shook things up in the off season bringing in QB Casey Thompson from Texas to spearhead new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s (Pitt) pro-style attack.
Much like UND, Nebraska was in all their losses last season but found ways to not pull out a W. I would say their 3-9 record is a bit deceiving.
The Nebraska defense will be stout again and will be a tough matchup for UND. The Hawks will need to establish their inside zone game in 2022 if they want to make a run at the FCS playoffs. Being able to do that vs. the Husker’s front will be a good omen for the rest of the schedule.
But, when it comes down to it this a Big Ten team vs a Top 25 FCS team.
Nebraska 34
North Dakota 17
Week 2 – UND vs #24 Northern Iowa
The Hawks haven’t played the blue-blood, powerhouse that is Northern Iowa since joining the MVFC. UNI is typically a physical, run-first, defensive-oriented team and I would expect the same in 2022, even though they brought in a new OC to run a more up-tempo EWU-style system.
UNI returns QB Theo Day, who brings talent to a position that has plagued them in recent years. The Michigan State transfer threw for 2,316 yards and 16 TD’s last season leading UNI to a 6-6 record and first round loss to EWU.
UNI takes on Air Force the week before so it will be interesting to see how they play vs the option attack and how they come out of the game. Those games are always a grinder for a defense.
UND at home for the Potato Bowl? Yes, please.
North Dakota 24
Northern Iowa 20
Week 3 – UND at Northern Arizona
After two tough, physical games the Hawks head down to beautiful Flagstaff, AZ to take on the Lumberjacks. Elevation (7,000 feet) could be an issue with this game but we have found that in the past it really didn’t play into the final score.
NAU is picked 7th in the Big Sky preseason poll. They finished 5-6 last season.
The Lumberjacks return dynamic sophomore running back Kevin Daniels. At 6’2″-225, he is a big, physical back that amassed 1,146 yards last season. He will most likely be the main focus of the offense again but NAU always has impressive wide receivers, as well.
This is NAU’s home opener so they will undoubtedly be sky high for this one. We look for UND to take control up front and methodically churn out a victory to run their record to 2-1.
North Dakota 26
Northern Arizona 20
Week 4 – UND at #8 Southern Illinois
The Hawks head back on the road as they take on the Saluki’s down in Carbondale, once again. The Saluki’s are picked 4th in the MVFC preseason poll after going 8-5 in 2021 and qualifying for the FCS playoffs, beating South Dakota in round one.
QB Nic Baker is back after throwing for 3,271 yards and 27 TD’s last season. WR Avante Cox is also back and is an issue for everyone. The Saluki defense lost some pieces but brought in a boatload of transfers to try and plug some holes. The Saluki defense was very porous last season, allowing 180 yards rushing per game.
UND went down to Carbondale last season and lost 31-28, missing a late field goal that would’ve sent it to overtime. That result gives me hope the Hawks can go down there again and play with confidence and pull out the victory this time. UND outgained the Salukis 474-363.
SIU is a fairly unpredictable team in that they have a ton of talent and look the part but don’t always play that way, much like Missouri State. If UND can get the running game going again they can win this game.
Southern Illinois 30
North Dakota 28
Week 5 – UND vs #5 Missouri State
Enthusiasm is sky high again in Springfield as the Bears are once again predicted to be a Top 10 team. Bobby Petrino has upgraded the talent level and thus begun to win games, something that hasn’t happened in quite a long time for MSU.
The Bears have an astounding 47 transfers on the roster this season. FORTY-SEVEN. Bobby wants to win now.
QB Jason Shelley lead the charge for the Bears offense. He amassed 3,347 yards and 22 TD’s in 2021. Shelley is a true dual-threat QB who gave the Hawks fits in 2021. He is arguably the best QB in FCS.
The Bears defense is just average allowing 26 pts/game and their offensive line is an issue at times. But the talent at the skill positions is undeniable.
Let’s just call it what it is – UND owes Missouri State after last season’s debacle down in Springfield. The Hawks controlled the game in the second half leading 28-17 with five minutes left. But, they collapsed with two bad turnovers and a wore out Hawks defense let the Bears march right down the field to win it with little time left.
This is a game the Hawks NEED to win. It’s Homecoming/Hall of Fame week. The motivation is there in many different areas. I see it happening.
North Dakota 38
Missouri State 27
Week 6 – UND at Youngstown State
This is a tough one. The Penguins have been down for several years now but new coach Doug Phillips seems to be turning their recruiting around every so slightly and it is showing up on the field.
YSU is predicted to finish 9th in the MVFC. The return of all-everything RB Jaleel McLaughlin gives them a shot in most every game. He amassed 1,139 yards and 12 TD’s last season and is also a threat in the receiving game.
UND beat YSU 24-21 last season in a tight affair at the Alerus Center. Things will be different this season as the Hawks travel to the Igloo for the first time.
Tough one to predict. YSU does have the Bison on the road the week prior……but I got a bad feeling, folks. Coming off the big homecoming W over Missouri State I am sensing a letdown situation.
Youngstown State 24
North Dakota 16
Week 7 – UND vs #2 South Dakota State
The Hawks are back home for a crucial tilt against the #2 ranked Jackrabbits of South Dakota State.
UND lost a heartbreaker down in the Brookings last year 24-21, a game that they easily could’ve won but once again came up a play or two short. In the spring season prior UND beat the Jacks 28-17 in the Alerus Center.
The Jacks are absolutely loaded on offense this year. QB Mark Gronowski is back after his breakout spring 2021 season (injured in fall of 2021). NFL prospect TE Tucker Kraft, along with the WR Janke twins, RB Isaiah Davis and OL Garret Greenfield & Mason McCormick round the all-star cast. Defenses are going to be on their heels vs. SDSU.
SDSU plays NDSU the week before in Fargo, not to mention they play USD the week before that. Emotional rollercoaster to say the least.
I got a feeling the Hawks are fired up for this one after the YSU trip and see this game as the key to their playoff hopes.
North Dakota 27
South Dakota State 24
Week 8 – UND vs. Abilene Christian
The Hawks take on FCS newcomer Abilene Christian in a rare week 8 out-of-conference game. The Wildcats were picked 2nd in the WAC preseason poll.
Last season ACU went 5-6 and ended up firing coach Adam Dorrel, who was pried away from Northwest Missouri State where he won three national championships. Dorrel only went 19-32, however, during his time in Abilene.
Enter Keith Patterson, a long-time FBS defensive coordinator who came to ACU from Texas Tech. Will be interesting watch the maturation of the Patterson-led Wildcats as the season progresses. This could be a tougher game than predicted, who know.
The Hawks obviously need to win this game for every reason possible. They are better, at home, and in need of W’s for a seven-win playoff resume.
I am seeing a sluggish, hangover type of game for the Hawks. A win nonetheless.
North Dakota 31
Abilene Christian 18
Week 9 – UND at Indiana State
Another tricky road game awaits the Hawks as they head to Terre Haute for the first time to take on the Indiana State Sycamores.
ISU is picked 10th in the MVFC preseason poll. They went 5-6 last season but were 3-2 at home.
The Sycs are far from the worst team in the league but haven’t been able to gain much traction after 2014 season that saw them go 8-6 and make the playoffs.
This game is more about UND and playing a clean football game on the road vs. a team that is less talented than you. No fumbles, false starts, or encroachments.
North Dakota 30
Indiana State 23
Week 10 – UND vs #21 South Dakota
Quite possibly the biggest game of the season falls on Nov 12th when the Yotes head up the Alerus Center.
USD may not have alot left to play for at this point after navigating a hellacious schedule. Regardless, the Yotes always seem to play UND tough and vice versa.
Here is a stat for you: USD has not won in Grand Forks since 1985. 14 straight W’s for UND in the very friendly confines of Memorial Stadium/Alerus Center.
USD does return several key pieces, led by QB Carson Camp (2,252 yards and 17 TD’s). Will it be enough to overcome the aura of El Grande Forko?
North Dakota 28
South Dakota 16
Week 11 – UND at #1 North Dakota State
To finish up the season, UND heads down to Fargo to take on the #1 Bison who will more than likely be #1 in the country and undefeated.
UND has not won in Fargo since 2002 and the games haven’t been particularly close either. Last season was UND’s best shot to beat NDSU as they played them even the entire game but a few miscues cost them a chance in the 16-10 loss at home.
I see the Hawks being 7-3 coming into the game vs NDSU. A loss here isn’t a playoff-killer and a big reason why they need to do their work before Week 11.
I don’t this season as being the time UND exorcises the Fargodome demons and leaves with a win. Could it happen? Maybe, but it will be awfully tough.
North Dakota State 27
North Dakota 14
There you have it – UND finishes the season 7-4 and qualifies for the FCS playoffs for the 4th time in the D1 era. I honestly do like the makeup of this team.
UND has leaders and experience in all positions. Plus, the Hawks typically bounce back after a down season. Kind of a yo-yo effect and last season was a down one.