Let’s preface this discussion by saying UND must first and foremost WIN in the regular season finale out in beautiful San Luis Obispo, California vs. Cal-Poly and their triple option attack.  No small task for UND.  If they do not win, the rest of the dialogue below means nothing.

Thunder Lake Lodge

Facts:

  1. There are 14 “at-large” bids.
  2. The MVFC will get at least 3 of them (Illinois State, SDSU, and UNI).
  3. The CAA will get at least 3 of them (James Madison (in), Richmond (in), Towson, UNH, and Villanova fighting for spots).  Based on strength of wins we are not convinced that Towson gets in at 7-4.  Their best win is over 6-4 Villanova.  UNH is also a wildcard with their best win being over 7-3 Richmond and the rest being poor wins.  Villanova has to play James Madison, who is in.
  4. The Southland will get at least 1 of them (Central Arkansas OR Sam Houston State).  We need Sam Houston State (7-3) to beat Central Arkansas (7-3) to get them their fourth loss and make it a comparison contest.  Central Arkansas has beat NOBODY of substance.  SHSU has a D2 win, meaning they would only have 7 FCS wins.
  5. The Southern Conference will MAYBE get 1 of them (Citadel 7-4).  The Citadel has no wins of substance.
  6. The Ohio Valley Conference will only get 1 of them.  Eastern Illinois vs. Eastern Kentucky is a battle for 7 FCS wins.  Winner is in the discussion, loser is out.
  7. The Patriot League will MAYBE get 1 of them.  Fordham is a huge X factor in this discussion.   They are done playing at 9-2, with a win over Army.  They lost to Colgate, however, meaning they will not win the PL auto bid (Colgate gets it).  They could get an at-large but their schedule is so weak that they may be left out.

(BOLDED below are the teams that would benefit UND most by winning)

Portland State (@ Eastern Washington 6-4):  Portland State is in and could get a Top 8 seed with a win.  Would be nice for UND to have that on the resume.  Also, EWU is OUT with a loss.  Freeing up another at-large spot.

Montana State (vs Montana 6-4):  Montana beat UND handily in Missoula 42-16 earlier this year without Keaton Studsrud and Cole Reyes.  If the Bobcats can pull the upset, Montana is OUT.  Freeing up another at-large spot.

Southern Utah 7-3 (vs Northern Arizona 7-3):  At 7 wins, NAU is likely out because of the D2 win on their schedule.  SUU win here would benefit UND’s chances.  Either way, the loser of this game is OUT.  SUU wins the Big Sky if they beat NAU.

Southern Illinois (@ UNI 6-4)
Maine (@ New Hampshire 6-4)
Rhode Island (@ Towson 6-4)
James Madison (vs Villanova 6-4)
Sam Houston State (Central Arkansas 7-3)

To sum it up:  If UND wins and at least 2-3 of the above bolded teams win, UND should get an at-large. The Big Sky should get 3 at-large teams, 4 might be a stretch and would be based on upsets in CAA.

**Most importantly, if EWU and/or Montana lose that will help UND tremendously based on them being direct competition from the Big Sky.