The Game Vitals
Game Time – 2:30CT
Opponent – Bowling Green Falcons. Doyt Perry Stadium – Bowling Green, OH.
Game Notes – UND Bowling Green
TV – America One Sports – WDAY’Z Xtra (8.3 GF, 596 Midco)
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – ESPN3
Spread – Bowling Green -20.5. Total = 61.5
Bowling Green Breakdown
— Offense = Spread, Hyper Speed, No Huddle
— Defense = 4-2-5
Offensively – UND will have its hands full with the Bowling Green pace and tempo. The defensive depth advantage up front for UND will be neutralized by the hurry-up speed of the no-huddle playcalling. Getting fresh bodies in will be difficult, which is obviously the point of running this offense. As we saw last week vs. Stony Brook, UND likes to run in 4-5 guys at a time up front, every two plays to keep them fresh.
Against Ohio State, the Falcons primarily played out of shotgun sets in 20 and 10 personnel groups (no tight ends) with a heavy pass-to-run ratio. Three-step quick hitters, dropback and play action passes were spread around pretty evenly in the passing game. We tend to think we will see more dropback from BGSU this week.
The Falcons offensive line is very experienced and talented up front. It will be a challenge for UND to get to the QB when they do go to the dropback game. This group had the most returning starts of any unit in the country.
From a personnel standpoint, it goes without saying that UND will be in nickel packages primarily this week. We are interested to see how they game plan for speedy senior WR #5 Ronnie Moore. The 5-9, 170 pounder showed he belonged on the field last week against Ohio State and can hurt you in a variety of different ways, including jet sweep looks. Moore had 72 catches for 954 yards and 6 TDs last season in the high-flying 2015 BGSU offense and is very similar to the scatty WR UND faced last week in New York (Bolden). Sophomore 5-10 WR #21 Scott Miller and freshman 5-10 WR #87 Marquis Zimmerman are both talented players to keep an eye on.
At the QB spot, senior QB James Knapke leads the Falcon offense. Against Ohio State last week, he had a tough day going 12-33 for 110 yards and 2 interceptions. But again, Ohio State defenses will do that to opposing QBs. Knapke’s arm strength is comparable to UND QB Keaton Studsrud’s. However, Knapke showed a tendency to be inaccurate and a willingness to throw it up for grabs against the Buckeyes. It could have been an anomaly because of the opponent but if that continues this week the UND defense must capitalize on turnover opportunities with some interceptions, not just pass breakups.
The “feeling out” process for the UND defense will be paramount in the first quarter. DC Eric Schmidt will need to figure out how much blitzing he is able to do against the Falcons based on how the first few possessions play out. Trying to gauge the 1-0n-1 matchups with their passing game personnel will probably have the biggest bearing on how much UND blitzes, and then they have got to get pressure against 5-man protections when they do.
Defensively – The Falcons operate out of a base 4-2-5 look but it tends to morph into a base 4-3, like most teams run. Last week vs. Ohio State they gave a 4-2-5 look because Ohio State always runs 1-back sets, meaning four wide receivers.
UND is going to have to project how Bowling Green will play vs. UND’s big sets (2 & 3 tight ends). We have a feeling it will look similar to how Stony Brook played them with a tight 4-3 look and the safeties around 7-8 yards.
Bowling Green gave up 29 pts/game in 2015, which isn’t too bad in the MAC. When looking at it closer they actually only gave up around 20 pts/game in their 10 wins. However, they were trounced for 51 pts/game in their four losses.
The front four for the Bowling Green is pretty good, as you would imagine. They didn’t factor into last weeks drubbing by Ohio State because the Buckeyes were too busy picking apart the secondary with long TD passes. #93 Shannon Smith at nose tackle played well last week and will be a handful inside. #3 Terrance Bush is their big play guy off the edge. He led the Falcons with six sacks in 2015 and also added 8 TFL’s.
The strength of the 2016 BGSU defense is the linebacking corps. #1 Austin Valdez is their do-everything inside linebacker. The junior posted 101 tackles, 11 TFL’s and two INT’s in 2015. Last week vs. Ohio State Valdez had 10 tackles. OLB #2 Trenton Greene led the Falcons with 16 tackles last week.
Cornerback Alphonso Mack is the Falcons best secondary player. He led the team with six interceptions in 2015. The senior also added 50 tackles and three pass breakups.
North Dakota Keys to Win The Game
- Run The Football WELL. We all know UND’s offense is built around running the football. This week is it doubly important to run the football. Not only for your own success but to keep the opponent off the field. Up-tempo, hyper-speed offenses need to get in sync to produce. If they punt and then don’t see the field for 8 game minutes, then get stopped again, things get disjointed like they had last week vs. OSU.
- QB Keaton Studsrud needs to redeem himself. He is without his top weapon for the rest of the year now. Short, possession throws become more important than ever. Studsrud was off last week early in the game and it put UND in far too many 2nd and long situations.
- UND cornerbacks need to play confidently. Bowling Green is going to move quickly and throw a ton of slants, hitches, digs, fades and every other quick route than can be run. UND needs to react up and tackle the short stuff, making BGSU snap it again. The key will be defending the long ball once they get impatient. That was a major problem for UND last season.
- Not only win, but DOMINATE special teams play this week. Last week, this was the difference in the game. UND should have a huge chip on their shoulder on Special Teams this week.
The Prediction
Last week did not go as planned for UND or their fans. As bad as it was, UND still led for a decent part of the game and lost on a fluke blocked punt. There were pieces to build off of from the Stony Brook loss.
This week is a completely different animal, at least offensively, in Bowling Green. Knapke is more than capable of gashing a defense for 400+ yards through the air. That wasn’t the case last week. The UND defense will need to have one their best games in recent memory to slow down this Bowling Green offense that is going to be out for blood after that 70 point drubbing by big brother last week.
The idea that this is a “must-win” game for UND is asinine. Nobody wants to be 0-2 heading into Potato Bowl Weekend but a game this early against an FBS opponent is never “must-win”. Especially with the full Big Sky Conference schedule hanging in the balance.
What UND does need to do is to get better and play competitively to give themselves a chance in the 4th quarter. Offensively, UND has to bounce back and show that they can get the running game going again up front, which will affect the entire offense’s success. On defense, pick up where you left off and slow down the blitzkrieg of offensive plays coming at them and get off the field.
