The Game Vitals
Game Time – 1:00 CT
Opponent – Northern Colorado Bears @ Alerus Center, Grand Forks, ND
Game Notes – UND
TV – Midco Sports Network Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – Eversport
Spread – UND -7. Total = 58
Northern Colorado (5-4) Breakdown
— Offense = Spread, Shotgun/Pistol. 3-4 WR’s.
— Defense = 4-3
Offensively, UNC runs a pretty balanced running and passing attack that averages 30.7 points, 166 rushing yards and 224 passing yards per game. They will run power and counter but also run inside zone out of the pistol formation set. They employ at least one TE most times, as evidenced by their primary 11 and 12 personnel groupings.
Redshirt freshman QB Jacob Knipp has thrown for 1,591 yards with 10 TDs and 7 interceptions. Last week against a stout Portland State defense, he carved up their secondary in the first half while jumping out to an early lead. Fellow redshirt freshman RB Trae Riek has had an impressive campaign with 607 yards and 6 TDs.
The Bears wide receiving corps is generally diminutive, but what it lacks in size, it makes up for in speed and quickness. This is a scatty, talented group of wideouts that cause concern for us. WR #87 Stephen Miller leads the team with 24 receptions for 365 yards and 3 TDs.
Given it’s youth at the skill positions, this UNC offense is starting to hit its stride and should be a force to be reckon with the next few years. UNC’s record would not be where it is at today without the success of the offense.
The UND defense absolutely needs to get pressure on the QB in passing downs and situations. Secondary play is always better when the QB is under duress. These UNC WRs are slippery and dangerous and run good routes that take longer to develop. If Knipp has time to sit in the pocket and let the routes develop, he has shown an ability to pick apart opposing defenses.
Teams have shown that they are going to “slide protect” vs. UND – meaning they slide the entire offensive line one way and keep a TE or RB in to protect. This essentially creates a wall that won’t be penetrated up the middle. UND needs to use pressures that attack off the edge via OLB/S to get to Knipp.
Defensively, the Bears are giving up 33 pts per game and most importantly for UND, they are giving up 209 rushing yards per game. They are not any better vs. the pass, giving up 275 yards per game.
The Bears are a true 4-3 team. They don’t bring a ton of pressure and will sit back vs. spread out sets. When teams bring in a TE/FB they will bring in their LB’s accordingly. However, vs. Portland State last week it appeared they were doing a healthy dose of stunting and twisting up front, which caused major issues for the Vikings run game. The result was the biggest win UNC has achieved in a long, long time. Look for them to continue that vs. UND this week. The UND offense had trouble running the ball early in the year vs. teams that moved around up front and like to play games with the DE/DT.
SS Taylor Risner is far and away their leading tackler with 92 total stops on the year. He is an impressive athlete back there at 6’2″-205.
Another impressive player on the defense is LE #9 Mikhail Dubose, who has tallied 4.5 sacks and 9.5 TFL’s so far this year. He is a dynamic pass rusher from his end spot. Dubose will need to ran AT so as to not allow him to be free running down plays on Saturday.
Senior Day – Here are the 2015 UND Seniors:
3 RB Ja’won Arrington – Birmingham AL
9 DB Dillon Olson – Grygla, Minn.
11 WR Miguel Cerriteno – Las Vegas, Nev.
16 WR Romon Bridges – Stockton, Calif.
31 LB Dayo Idowu – Woodbury, Minn.
36 TE Zach Adler – Omaha, Neb.
37 LB Javen Butler – Pittsburg, Calif.
38 DB William James – Sollentuna, Sweden
51 LB Will Ratelle – Edina, Minn.
63 OL Sean Meehan – Trevor, Wis.
71 OL Brandon Anderson – Sartell, Minn.
73 OL Colton Boas – Bloomfield, Iowa
97 DL Kyle Woodsmall – Wildwood, Mo.
North Dakota (5-4) Keys to the Game
- Stop Trae Riek. UND has been good vs. the run this year, allowing only 94 yds/game, but has shown some vulnerability lately vs. MSU and Montana. Slowing down Riek will go a long way to stopping the UNC offense by making them predictable and one-dimensional.
- Seniors – lead the way. Tomorrow’s game is Senior Day for 13 members of the UND Football team. Fittingly, two offensive lineman (Brandon Anderson and Sean Meehan), lead the way with a combined 76 starts in their career. Along with Adler, Idowu, and Ratelle, these five have been the backbone of the 2015 program and UND could not have had better senior leadership this season.
- Offensive line shuffling. With Elijah Grady a game time decision, don’t be surprised if UND slides Sean Meehan back out to RT and inserts Dan Bell at RG. LT/RT Mat Cox will be needed all around this week.
- Build a lead early. UND has jumped out to the lead in 7 of 9 games this year. Get the lead and BUILD on it this week. Don’t let UNC hang around because as we have seen bad things happen when UND let’s a team hang around.
- Kickoff and Punt Coverage. UNC is extremely dynamic in the return game. #13 Ellis Onic has returned two punts for TD’s and #11 Hakeem Deggs has returned two kickoffs for TD’s this year. Make UNC score TD’s vs. your defense, not your special teams. The above stats tell us UND will be using Alex MacGregor to kickoff or will have Reid Taubenheim pooch kicking. Kicking off to the 5-10 yard line is a recipe for disaster vs. UNC.
Prediction
With the exception of last year’s beatdown in Greeley (33-14 UND), history shows these games to be extremely close down to the final minute and plays during the Division 1 and Big Sky era. Everyone remembers the famous 4th down stop in Greeley when UNC had 12 defenders on the field and wasn’t called for it.
Both teams and programs in general are improved since last year and are trending upwards in the Big Sky Conference relative to recent past performance. While UNC’s playoff chances are zero, both teams enter the game at 5-4 with postseason chances on the line.
Special teams, specifically in the UNC return game, will be under the microscope tomorrow against their talented return men. Special Teams TDs can be backbreakers in any game. UND must contain the UNC return game.
UND had a bye week to prep for UNC and get healthier than they have been all season at some key positions. The bye week prep has proven to be a huge advantage this year. We think and hope that this trend holds and that UND heads into the final week with some positive momentum.
North Dakota 37
Northern Colorado 23