The Sioux (6-3) head out to beautiful Davis, CA to take on the UC-Davis Aggies on Saturday at 4pm in a crucial Great West Conference game.   Davis (3-6) is coming off their best effort of the year  in a 24-17 upset home victory over Cal Poly.  As usual, they are peaking at the end of the year and the Sioux are going to have their hands full.   The Sioux need to win this game and also next week vs. USD to share a piece of the GWC championship with Cal Poly.  The game is only available via the usual radio networks. 

Rumors

UND Defense vs. Davis Offense

UC Davis (19.9 pts/game) is running their same pro-style offense again this season.  They run a lot of two tight end sets along with one-back, three receiver, one TE sets.  The running game appears to be secondary for them as they only average 85 yds/game on the ground.   We do not see them trying to run much in this game as nobody, besides Cal Poly, has had much success vs. UND running the ball.

Davis relies on the strong arm of the QB #17 Randy Wright.  Wright’s numbers on the season are 159-283 (56%) for 1950 yds and 14 TD’s vs. 4 INT’s.   He is a big QB (6’3″-202) and reminds us of SUU QB Brad Sorenson in the way he runs the offense for the Aggies.   Wright had a huge game last season vs. the Sioux at the Alerus Center going for 286 yards and 4 TD’s.

The Aggies don’t appear to have that dominant receiver as they have in the past but do have two pretty good ones, nonetheless.  #5 Tom Hemmingway (5’10”) leads the Aggies with 38 catches for 522 yards and 7 TD’s.   #81 Anthony Soto (5’10”) is second on the team with 36 catches for 447 yards and 4 TD’s.  These two are the main threats that UND has to worry about as the tight ends on the roster appear to be there to mostly block.

Stop us if you have heard this before but this game is going to come down to whether UND can defend the pass.   The Sioux pass defense has gotten steadily worse since their peak out at Southern Utah where they did a pretty good job vs. the Thunderbirds.  Davis showed last week that they are willing to spread you out and increase the pace a bit.   We see them adopting that style vs. UND since the Sioux have not shown the ability to stop a team through the air.   UND’s pass rush has been very good lately but they may have more trouble in this one as Davis likes to use tight ends to help in pass protection.   This should mean one less receiver to cover but that hasn’t made a difference so far this year as the Sioux have gotten beat with 2 and 3 receiver routes also.   We are hoping the secondary will play like they did vs. SUU as these teams are somewhat similar and it is a crucial GWC game as that game was.

UND Offense vs Davis Defense

The 4-3 defense of UC-Davis returns 8 starters from last year’s team and will run some 2 high looks in the secondary along with some some “man-free” and “man-under” looks in blitzing situations.  They are led by linebacker Jordan Glass and defensive end Tommy Grillo.  Grillo and the Davis defensive ends could present some challenges to the tackles of UND on Saturday as they have not played exceptionally well as of late.

The UND offense enters Saturday’s tilt short-handed with the recent loss of leading receiver Greg Hardin.  Combine that with the fact the RJ McGill has been limited as well because of injury and the Sioux receiving corps is limited to say the least.  As shown last week, guys like Tyrhe Ivery (redshirt freshman) and Blair Townsend (sophomore) will need to step up in a big way to give the passing game a boost.  Ivery made the big catch last week on 3rd and 24 to keep the game-winning drive alive against Sioux Falls, and hopefully we can look back at that play and say that it was a turning point for him and his progression as a playmaking WR for the UND offense in the years to come.  His adjustment on the connection with Goska to make the catch is something you just can’t teach a kid – they either have it or they don’t.  It’s just a flash of what he’s capable of doing when he’s playing with confidence.  Senior Chris Anderson will probably also need to be a big part as well.  Seth Nichols finally got involved in the offense more last week and he will definitely be called upon.  He made some tough catches last week and definitely impressed the home crowd.

Senior QB Brent Goska has played fairly well the last couple of weeks and will need to continue to manage this offense and not turn the ball over.  As always, the running game will need to take the pressure off of Goska and the passing game, and the 3-headed rushing attack of Miller, Sutton and Garman will have to perform well in order for the offense to be successful against the Davis defense.  We hope Goska leads this team to a strong finish in his senior year.  The kid has been through a lot in his career and has been the consummate team player in everything thrown his way.

The offensive line needs to step up – plain and simple.  As mentioned earlier, they will have their hands full with the defensive front of Davis and will have to protect Goska when called upon in passing situations.  The running game needs to also get back on track to control the clock like they did in the UNC game (43 minutes, still an amazing stat).  If the Sioux can run the ball like they are capable of, they will win this game.

Prediction

This is a huge game for the Sioux and their program.   A win gets them to 7-3 on the season but more importantly 2-1 in the GWC with one game to go, a home game next week vs. rival USD.   That game would be for a share of the GWC championship.  Without Hardin this game just got much harder but the Sioux still have as much talent as Davis.   Offensive line and secondary play are the keys for the Sioux.  Run the ball and don’t give up the big passing plays.  If both play well, UND will win the game.

North Dakota  23

UC Davis  20