The Game Vitals
Game Time – 2:30 CT
Opponent – North Dakota State Bison @ Fargodome – Fargo, North Dakota
TV – NBC North Dakota Network (ND), ESPN3, ESPN College Extra
Online Streaming – ESPN3
Spread – NDSU -27.5. Total = 48
NDSU Breakdown
— Offense = Pro-style, fullback, tight end, two receivers.
— Defense = 4-3 Tampa 2.
Offensively, the unquestioned catalyst is QB Carson Wentz. Stating the obvious here, but it’s so true. He can beat you on the ground in the running game and he can beat you throwing the ball. The kid is a special talent. NDSU runs a lot of QB power and counter designed specifically for Wentz because of his speed, power and ability to make tacklers miss in the open field.. He’s a formidable threat in the running game. He’s also more than capable of executing their mid-range passing game and isn’t afraid to throw a comeback to the field from the opposite hash – that tough, long throw that everyone talks about. We saw this against Montana in week 1 out in Missoula. Wentz excels as an effective intermediate thrower on 3rd down to extend drives, but is also a huge threat to leave the pocket on scrambles.
The Bison will come out in a variety of sets, may of which come from the same personnel grouping. Shifting and motions are commonplace each play. Many of their snaps are in 31 personnel, with typically a fullback, h-back and tight end. They will run power, iso, and outside zone to death. The outside zone play where the playside uncovered OL will typically pull, was seen numerous times against the Griz on TV. UND will have to do it’s best with run fits on this play and stay on their feet. Surprisingly, NDSU cuts a ton on the edge for a notorious “smashmouth” running team. The corners will be vital in the run support this week and will have to constrict and set the edge.
At RB, King Frazier and Chase Morlock will get the majority of the carries and are great runners. At WR, Zach Vraa is the vertical “post” threat and RJ Urzendowski is more of their underneath and intermediate guy. Up front, left tackle Joe Haeg is the experienced leader of a strong, tough offensive line.
Defensively, the NDSU defense is yet another 4-3 alignment. They are obviously going to be very similar to the defense that Wyoming ran. This will give UND an idea of what worked a couple weeks ago but it will also show NDSU was UND did to attack that defense.
The main difference this week will be that NDSU is much more aggressive up front than Wyoming. Their front four will twist/stunt a lot, while also bring pressure with their linebackers. The key to a defense like NDSU’s is identifying the alignment of the tackles along with the alignment of the ILB, Nick Deluca. His positioning can indicate whether pressure is coming or not.
NDSU will be better in the front seven than Wyoming. We will say though, from everything we have seen they are not as good up front as they have been in the past 4-5 years. Their defensive line is solid. Their linebackers are good but somewhat inexperienced. Right now, Deluca is the guy UND needs to worry about as he is a big-time playmaker for them from his middle linebacker position.
NG Nate Tanguay is NDSU’s best defensive lineman and will be a handful for the interior lineman of UND. He will be across from center Colton Boas and OG Brandon Miller. Those two must do a much better job this week. Boas and Studsrud needs to get the snap issues taken care of in practice this week. That is unacceptable at any level of football.
The Bison secondary is green in the safety positions but experienced at the corner spots. NDSU now plays true freshman safety Robbie Grimsley extensively, along with the paper starters Chris Board and Tre Dempsey, both sophomores. Corner C.J. Smith is one of the best corners in the MVFC and will be tough to beat on Saturday. Opposite him is corner Jordan Champion (5’9”), who had a rough go of it out in Missoula. He may be the guy that gets most of the attention from the UND passing game on Saturday.
North Dakota Keys to the Game
- Contain Wentz’s running when he’s dropping back. ‘Contain’ will be paramount when NDSU drops back to pass this week. In the event he looks downfield and doesn’t like what he sees, we have seen him escape the pocket and scramble for a first down too many times. Contain.
- UND’s corners, safeties, and OLB’s will get one shot at Wentz when he waggles, boots, or scrambles. More times than not he makes that guy miss and runs for a while. Can UND bring him down?
- Defensively, get off the field on 3rd down. UND is holding their opponents to a miniscule 6-30 (20%) on third downs this year. Wentz is famous for converting 3rd down intermediate throws, more specifically on sideline routes. But they aren’t afraid to throw a post for the big play. It will be interesting to see how UND attacks early in the game on 3rd down in those situations.
- The UND defense needs to setup the UND offense with a short field, at least once. That means forcing a turnover or two, which they haven’t done yet. When the QB throws the ball right at you, catch it.
- Cornerback run support. This is the type of game where the UND corners need to “man up” and be tough in supporting the run on the edge. The perimeter run defense for UND will depend on it.
- Bend, but don’t break defensively. Make them drive it, they will get their yards. But hold up when it counts in the red zone and don’t give up the big play. We hope to see a lot of their field goal team.
- We honestly feel UND needs to come out in “big” sets and run the ball right at the NDSU defense. That may sound counter productive based on last week’s performance vs. Drake but it is not. Getting Francis, Aplin, Adler, and Iverson on the field will bring the NDSU defense in and straighten up there rush lanes. Challenge the offensive line once again and see if they respond.
- QB Keaton Studsrud is going to be called upon to make big throws that he has not made yet in his career. There are going to be third and long’s, just like at Wyoming, but there will be much more pressure coming at him in this game. Can he find the 1-on-1 matchup outside and put it on the money vs. tight coverage? UND’s WR’s are not burners but are crisp route runners. They will provide a small window for Studsrud vs. the quality corners for the Bison.
- We fully expect to see all three true freshmen RB’s on Saturday. John Santiago, Brady Oliviera, and Iwarri Smith all bring something different to the table. What better setting to introduce them all to the state of North Dakota than this.
- The interior of the UND offensive line is going to be challenged like never before in this one. Center Colton Boas and guards Brandon Anderson & Brandon Miller must be communicating with line calls this week due to the interior games that NDSU is going to play. Protection starts inside and works out.
- One position group that got open a handful of times vs. the Tampa 2 in Laramie was the tight ends. There are voids vs. a cover 2 that can be exploited down the seams and Zach Adler & Luke Mathewson both caught big first down balls by exploiting those holes.
- Have a day, punter Mitch Meindel. Setting up the UND defense with a long field behind them will only enhance their chances on Saturday. Meindel averaged 48 yds/punt vs. Drake and will need to match/exceed that performance again this week.
Prediction
This is the “Civil War” football game that many people have been waiting for. A 12 year hiatus hasn’t been able to change the passion for both sides and their dislike like for the other. It is finally here and we are excited to see how it plays out. Regardless of the outcome, we are glad to see it back and look forward to seeing it more in the future.
NDSU is the heavy favorite and rightfully so. UND opened as 30 point ‘dogs’ in Vegas and still sits at 27.5 points. That’s a lot of points for a rivalry game. However, the Bison have earned that respect and much more. UND is on the rise as a program, but last week’s performance against Drake was disappointing at best and NDSU is coming off an impressive win over an upcoming Weber State program.
UND is 4-1 all-time at the Fargodome and the one loss (2000) was a tight 16-13 contest, so historically the games are close. But this game is under different pretenses. We will see how long it takes UND to acclimate to a loud and raucous Bison crowd. Carson Wentz’s success and UND’s ability to slow him down (not shut him down) will be the biggest indicator and determine the outcome of the game in our opinion.
NDSU 27
UND 17
