The Fighting Sioux come into the annual Potato Bowl with a record of 1-2 on the year. They just got done with back to back FBS games and welcome in transitioning D2 team Black Hills State University. Gametime is 6pm on Saturday night and is available to be seen through UND’s website, as are all home games.
UND Offense vs BHSU Defense
The UND offense is coming off the heels of a game in which they outgained a superior FBS opponent in Fresno St. Confidence should be at an all-time high and they should keep it rolling in this game against an undermanned BHSU defense.
This will be a unique week in that UND will see a 3-3-5 defense that they rarely see run against them. This defense is also called the 3-5-3 depending on personnel. It can essentially be a nickel package with 3 down lineman, 3 linebackers and 5 defensive backs or a defense of 3 down linemen, 5 linebackers and 3 defensive backs. It is typically a cover 3 package with 2 other d-backs/linebackers playing in the flats. They obviously can and will do other things out of it, but expect a lot of 3 deep looks from the secondary. This defense also loves to blitz a lot and will be a great challenge for the offense to see the blitzes coming, make the proper checks, pick up the protections and execute the passes downfield. The BHSU defense is led by #7 cornerback Joey Brown, #36 middle linebacker Randall Hill, and #94 nose guard Sterling Boylan.
This means that we expect UND to come out right away and take advantage of this by running the ball early and often to gain the early advantage and stronghold on the line of scrimmage and set the tone early. With Mitch Sutton being highly questionable tomorrow, look for Jake Miller and Jer Garman to get a lot of touches. We also expect the offense to do some more things and give some different looks to get some things on film for future opponents to prepare for. This offense needs to also take some shots down field and open it up a bit. It would be nice to jump on the yellow jackets early and be able to build some depth and get some younger guys playing time and get the starters off the field and safe from injuries. There’s no reason that the offense shouldn’t have 450 yards of offense and 40 plus points this week. They cannot afford to play down to their competition.
The offensive line needs to continue to get better in pass protection and give Joey Bradley time to go through his reads and make good throws in the pocket. In turn, Bradley needs to execute these throws when given the opportunity to gain confidence in himself and build a rapport with his WR’s. Hardin and McGill seem to have that already, now he needs to get the others involved more. Seth Nichols, Blair Townsend and Tyrhe Ivery need to all get touches. We think Nichols could have a big game on Saturday.
UND Defense vs BHSU Offense
The Yellow Jacket offense comes in to the game vs. the Sioux on a high note after posting 425 yards of offense and 37 points vs. their rival SD Mines. However, they are only averaging 18 points per game on the season.
The Jackets run a form of the spread offense where they run option out of the Pistol set if they do not give it to the running back. It is a different style of offense and surely caused the Sioux to take multiple reps to get used to the unique blocking scheme. Their main passing plays appear to be roll outs where they can get their QB #12 Wes Kragt on the move with a run/pass option. As anyone who has followed Sioux football knows, they are very good against the option. Always have been, always will be. The outside linebackers for UND should cause major headaches for Kragt when he is coming down the line. Those OLB’s usually attack the QB immediately to make him pitch it but we will have to wait and see what the game plan is this week.
Kragt is 56-112 for 715 yards and 6 TD’s this season. He has also thrown 3 interceptions. Their main threats is the running game are #35 Trent Butler (192 yds) and #2 Drew Nielsen (142 yds). They have combined for over half of the Jackets carries on the year with Kragt (150 yds) getting the rest in this spread option offense. The main receiving threat is #8 Daniel Hancock who leads the team with 18 catches for 281 yds and 2 TD’s on the year. He will be a player the Sioux corners need to watch out for.
The offensive line does not appear to be overly aggressive in their
scheme. They are fairly big at the tackle position, led by former Sioux recruit
Matt Field (312 lbs). The interior of the offensive line is undersized at around 250-275 pounds and the Sioux should be able to dominate with their 3-4 scheme. We full expect Ross Brenneman, Devin Benjamin, and Broc Bellmore to hold the line of scrimmage and force the option to bubble back when it comes down the line. OLB Dom Bennett and Cornerback Chavon Mackey were back as of last week and should be difference makers in this UND defense.
Prediction
The Sioux should come out and handle this BHSU team. We don’t care about respecting every opponent, anything can happen, etc. UND is the better team, which they should be, and has to come out and show it with a dominant effort that represents the roster differences. We are looking for an all-around consistent dominant effort.
North Dakota 48
BHSU 12 (2 blocked XP’s)