The Game Vitals
Game Time – 8:00CT – Grand Forks, ND.
Opponent – Sacramento State
TV – None
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – WatchBigSky
Spread – UND -13.5. Total = 48
Sacramento State Breakdown
— Offense = Spread
— Defense = 3-4
Offensively – From a personnel standpoint, Sac State predominantly has been running out 11 and 20 groupings. However, the TE is rarely in a 3 point stance and primarily is “flexed-out” in formations like doubles and trips, identical to 10 grouping formations. While they have been heavy with the pass in recent weeks, they are surprisingly still running the ball around a 45% clip so far. Shotgun sets with an offset back for zone read looks and pistol formations will be the norm.
The Hornets are spearheaded by sophomore QB #6 Nate Ketteringham, who has put up some impressive numbers to date. After a slow start to the season, the Sacramento State offense has put up an average of 37.2 points per game in its first 2 BSC games so far.
On the year, the Hornets are averaging 23 points and 395 yards of offense, with 253 of that coming through the air.
Ketteringham has thrown for 1151 yards, 9 TDs and 8 interceptions. That last number is high however, and the UND secondary needs to be on their toes this week as they will see plenty of action. #5 Isaiah Hennie is the leading receiver with 27 catches for 318 yards and 3 TDs. On the ground, the Hornets have a timeshare at running back with #4 Demetrius Warren and #25 Jordan Robinson totaling 516 yards and 3 TDs rushing. We did see Warren get helped off the field last week so his availability may be in question.
The UND defense will have to do a good job with deciding when to blitz and when to sit back and play coverage. They will need to be unpredictable to a certain degree and keep Sac State guessing on down and distance situations & disguise and confuse Ketteringham up front before the snap. Torrey Hunt and Evan Holm should plan on seeing lots of balls this week. Also, don’t be surprised to see Chris Carter and/or Garrett Bollant rotate in at corner.
Ketteringham seems to do a good job stepping up in the pocket when he feels the edge pressure, so the interior defensive line and inside linebackers will need to be disciplined and on their toes when the edge rushers get pressure.
Defensively – The Hornet’s play a base 4-2-5 defense. They will morph into a 3-4 look when bigger offensive sets enter the game, like UND will do, but for the most part stay in their base look. Sac State isn’t a big pressure team, preferring to stay in their zones and react.
Thus far in 2016 the Sac State defense is giving up 32 pts/game and 457 yds/game. 215 of those yards are allowed via the ground. Sac State has given up 12 rushing TD’s this year. They have produced 10 sacks, which does show they can bring some pressure when needed.
Their stalwart along the defensive line is #99 George Obinna. He is a smaller defensive end, much like UND’s Brandon Dranka or Drew Greely, but is very active and disruptive. On the year Obinna has 20 tackles, 3 sacks, and 4 TFL’s. Definitely a guy to key on come Saturday.
Another player that stuck out is #19 safety Nick Crouch. He has been called upon a lot to make tackles due to breakdowns up front and has been solid all year for the Hornets in that respect. He has 33 tackles through five games to go along with 1 INT.
The Hornets have been gashed pretty good at times on the ground this season and we fully expect that to be the game plan for UND, as well. Last week Montana State ran for 385 yards on only 45 carries (8.6 per rush). There appears to be some run fit issues that UND can definitely exploit.
North Dakota Keys to Win The Game
- Run the ball on offense, early and often. Nothing fancy, just establish who owns the line of scrimmage for the first quarter to open up passing opportunities.
- Take a couple deep shots on offense to open the up the field. Studsrud hasn’t thrown too many downfield vertical passes this year. Whether that’s by design, or guys just aren’t open, UND needs to do this better as the season progresses.
- Make Sac State drive it. No long TD plays.
- Get defensive pressure up the middle in the ‘A’ and ‘B’ gaps to not allow Ketteringham to step up and get into throws comfortably.
- Please, please hold on to the football. The last thing this Sac State offense needs is a reason to get its heart started through great field position via turnover. Playing a clean game on the road should be enough to get them back on the plane with a W.
- Fast start (again). UND came out and scored on their second drive last week and looked very good doing it. It really kick started their offense to the point they never slowed down and played their best game of the year.
- C.C. to Keaton – let’s build off of last week. Studsrud played by far his best game of the year last week vs. Cal Poly. Made the right checks, threw an extremely accurate ball and scrambled at appropriate times.
- UND’s young corners: play with confidence and have a short memory. If Sac State watched any film at all they are going to see that UND has two true freshman corners opposite Deion Harris (Evan Holm and Torrey Hunt). They are also going to see that MSU and Poly picked on them. The Hornets are going to throw the ball 50-60 times – buckle up.
- UND Defensive Backs: stay over top of the post routes (got beat three times on posts last week). Post-corners take too long to develop, let them run those after you jump the posts early. UND’s LB and DL will get to Ketteringham if he waits too long. The most dangerous, toughest throws to defend on the field are a post, dig, and slant (all routes that go IN). Early IN – Late OUT.
The Prediction
The Hornets will bring a major challenge with their passing game. UND hasn’t seen an inherently pass-happy offense since Bowling Green in week 2. The secondary gave up two big plays that day on deep middle routes to the same WR on the same route. We hope they have learned from that day.
This is a game that people seem to be a bit apprehensive about. Why? Because of the Idaho State debacle last season. Similar offenses, similar records, etc. Basically people are worried about a letdown vs. a spread, passing team with a bad record.
With that being said, the situations are much different. UND has their starting safeties playing this year – huge difference. UND had that ISU loss happen to them and remember it. The Sac State defense is not as good as the ISU defense was. We are ‘planning’ on Keaton Studsrud playing the entire game, unlike vs. ISU.
If UND comes out and blocks who they are supposed to block up front (been an issue at times), defends the deep ball, and plays a clean game they will win. Simple as that.