The Game Vitals
Game Time – 3:35 pm. Holt Arena.
Opponent – Idaho State
Game Notes – UND
TV – None
Radio – UND Radio Network
Online Streaming – WatchBigSky
Spread – UND -17. Total = 53
Idaho State (2-4) Breakdown
— Offense = Spread, Up-tempo
— Defense = 4-3
Offensively – As always, the Bengal offense likes to throw the ball around the field. They throw it around 2/3 of the time, but do not completely abandon the running game. The vast majority of their run game is zone blocking out of the pistol and offset shotgun, but they will sprinkle in some power. Idaho State averages 129 yds/game on the ground. The rushing game is led by #28 Jakori Ford, who has 83 carries for 388 yards and 5 TDs on the season. He is a talented running back, no doubt.
Personnel groupings are primarily out of 11 and 12, but they rarely have their TEs lined up in a 3 point stance on the end of the line of scrimmage. They will flex them out frequently in the slot like receivers in formations like doubles, which is their favorite.
ISU loves to use quick-hitters out on the perimeter, screens and 3-step routes to try neutralize aggressive defenses and setup their deeper, dropback passing game. The offensive line has had some issues protecting the QB this year as they have given up 21 sacks so far, seven of which came last week at Northern Arizona.
All of this sound familiar? It should. This offensive scheme and playcalling is very similar to last week’s opponent, Southern Utah.
So the challenge remains for the UND Defense and coordinator Eric Schmidt: how much do you blitz and when? If and when he gets his hand caught in the cookie jar on a blitz, the UND defense needs to limit the big play yardage by tackling and making them snap it again. Pursue to the ball and tackle them for 15-25 yard gains, and not 40-50.
The Bengals offense is led by #4 Tanner Gueller. The 6-2 235 pound sophomore is completing 60% of his passes for 1342 yards, 8 TDs and 8 interceptions. He is primarily a pocket passer but is mobile enough and not afraid to leave the pocket and run if the protection breaks down. He did this well last week multiple times. Gueller’s favorite targets are #15 K.W. Williams (34 catches for 400 yards and 4 TDs), and 6-3 220 pound TE Josh Cook (28 catches for 317 yards and 2 TDs).
The big pre-game question mark this week for UND on defense is the availability and status of safety Cole Reyes and his hamstring. Whether or not he should play is an entirely different question, given how ready or not ready his hamstring is. There’s an argument to be made both ways. However, the emergence of Chuck Flowers last week has eased some of the concern as his play was noticeably improved at safety. We expect to see a lot of Flowers this Saturday regardless of how much Reyes plays. Tanner Palmborg and Zach Arnell also need to recover from last week’s subpar performances in the back row. Please, just execute the call every play this week. No more blown coverages, our blood pressure cannot take it.
Defensively – The Bengal defense operates out of a base 4-3 look. They are somewhat similar to Southern Utah in that they appear to man-up their corners and play a 7 man box inside. The safeties will move around from a Cover 1 to Cover 2/3 looks. They have not brought a ton of pressure this year instead opting to sit and react with their talented linebackers.
On the year the Bengals are giving up 38 pts/game against a pretty tough schedule. They have played Colorado, Oregon State, Northern Arizona, Sac State, Simon Fraser, and Portland State. As far as yardage goes ISU has allowed 472 total yards of offense per game with 225 of that coming on the ground. They gave up over 500+ yards of rushing vs. Portland State.
The Bengals have had trouble getting off the field on third down in 2016. Opponents are clicking at a 43% conversion rate in that department.
The strength of the ISU defense is without a doubt their linebackers. They are the leading tacklers on the team and really stick out on film. #47 Mario Jenkins is back this year after sitting out the 2015 season due to injury. He leads the team with 58 tackles, 9 TFL’s and 3 sacks. Jenkins is a very rangy, athletic linebacker that will be in on a bunch of plays Saturday.
#25 Joe Martin and #30 Hayden Stout are the other two starting linebackers for the Bengals and are #2 and #3 in total tackles. The defensive front of ISU is meant to take up blockers and allow these two and Jenkins to run free and make plays.
The ISU secondary is a bit on the small side but is very athletic. The corners, #2 Lorenzo Terry & #1 Anthony Ricks only go 5’9” and 5’8” but can run pretty well. They are manned up most the game, which puts there defense in a bind at times due to the fact they cannot provide run support. The safeties are bigger at 6’0”-#10 Taison Manu and 6’1”-#4 Jayson Millers and those two are good athletes that provide good run support.
There should be ample opportunites in the passing game this week, even if WR Luke Stanley is not playing. Demun Mercer will get more reps in his place and that is probably a good thing for Mercer. We see Alex Reed joining Mercer, Noah Wanzek, and Travis Toivonen when UND goes to a four WR set, if they do at all.
North Dakota (5-2) Keys to Win The Game
- Defensively, get back to the basics. Pursuit and tackle. Last week’s film against SUU should have been a motivator.
- Continue to run the football. ISU has given up massive amounts of rushing yards this year. Run the ball between the tackles and good things will happen this week.
- Employ “slide-busters”. ISU went with a slide protection last year vs. UND and it worked well. The UND rushers couldn’t get to the QB and the secondary got picked apart. Bring pressure off the back side at times to get home.
- Play more zone defense-be “choosy’ with blitzing this week. ISU beat UND with short crossers all game last year. No more chasing. Sit in zone coverage and let them come to you. They shouldn’t be able to beat UND consistently with 1-on-1 downfield routes.
- Throw it up. As previously mentioned, the ISU corners are short. UND wide receivers are tall.
- Kickoff coverage team – redeem yourself. SUU returned the first kickoff of the game for a TD last week. Total lack of effort and pursuit by the kickoff team (even though it was schemed up well by SUU). Help the defense out with better coverage this week.
The Prediction
“Revenge” is a theme used by many UND fans this week. This may or may not be used by the coaching staff and players – we aren’t sure. But what we do know is that UND blew a 16 point lead late in the 3rd quarter during homecoming last year without Cole Reyes and Keaton Studsrud. We also know that the loss kept UND out of the FCS playoffs last year.
Yes, it needs to be business as usual; go out and win another Big Sky Conference Football game. However, regardless of the message being sent by the UND coaching staff this week, there’s no way you can tell us that revenge isn’t in the back of the minds of the UND players this week. We expect to see a focused, determined and somewhat pissed-off UND team play with an edge and take control of the game early on offense and defense. We do not anticipate a slow start this week.