The Sioux head out to Greeley, CO in Week 9 to take on a familiar foe in the Northern Colorado Bears. The Sioux and Bears were both members of the old NCC prior to UNC leaving to move up to the FCS level and eventually join the Big Sky. The Sioux will be joining the Big Sky next season. The game will be televised via Big Sky TV.
The Bears are 0-8 on the year and have really struggled since making the transition to FCS football. They were a D2 powerhouse in the late 90’s, winning back-to-back national championships in 1996 and 1997. That success did not translate to the FCS level as they have only had one winning season since making the move.
Note: this game will be played on a grass field. The Sioux have not played on a grass field once this year at SUU.
UND Defense vs. UNC Offense
Offensively, the Bears (19 pts/game) run a shotgun, spread attack. They throw the ball out of 4 receiver sets and the running game is secondary to them. They try to spread you out and get the ball to their receivers in space and allow them to use their quickness to beat you. Their QB, #9 Seth Lobato, is very similar to SUU QB Brad Sorenson in that he stands 6’5” and stands back there and is able to easily survey the field and make his reads. On the year he is 131-233 (56%) for 1,471 yards (184/game) and 10 TD’s vs. 8 INT’s.
The running game has been almost non-existent this season for the Bears. They only average 66 yds/game, which ranks them 116th in the country.
The main receiving threat in this offense is #1 Patrick Walker. He is the guy UND needs to worry about on Saturday. On the year he has 56 catches for 605 yards and 7 TD’s. He is a smaller receiver but is very quick/fast and can make you pay at any time. #18 Chris Morris is the their taller receiver at 6’2”. He has 32 catches for 307 yards and 2 TD’s. These two guys are going to be the keys to the game on Saturday.
This game comes down to the Sioux pass defense vs. the Bears passing offense. The Sioux have had their share of trouble in the secondary over the past few years but have shown glimpses of improvement this season. They played very well vs. SUU and had the fans hopes up but then regressed vs. Cal Poly this past weekend. Some of that may have had to do with the option look that Poly gives and getting caught up in thinking they need to help the run game. If the Sioux defense can get pressure on Lobato by only bringing 4-5 guys then they should have success in stopping the Bears on Saturday. If the secondary plays like they did vs. SUU then the Sioux should win this game. We want to see the secondary get after the Bears receivers by changing up their looks and making the Bears receivers change their routes. They cannot sit back and let the Bears play pitch and catch all day.
UND Offense vs UNC Defense
UND will be facing another 4-3 defense that is pretty vanilla and conservative in what they try to do, at least from what we saw in their Colorado State game earlier this year. The Sioux will see a lot of “2-high” looks again this week. The UNC defense is led by linebacker Clarence Bumpas, who leads the Big Sky in tackles with 103, while safety Marcel Gibbons is the leader in the secondary. From a personnel standpoint, the Bears are nothing too flashy and UND should be able to move the ball on them.
Back to the running game – UND should be able to move the ball on the ground with the fresh legs of Miller, Sutton and Garman. The offensive line needs to assert themselves and they must be able to control the clock and give the UND defense a breather against the passing offense of UNC. We think senior Brent Goska will get the start with Joey Bradley close by in case Goska struggles to get the offense going. In any event, you might see both QB’s regardless.
We anticipate the UND passing game to be simplified and a lot of the “move the chains” patterns and routes will be employed to try build the QB’s confidence and get them in a groove. UND has got to get Seth Nichols more involved in the offense. He is too valuable of a threat on the hashes to be ignored and can definitely help take some stress off McGill and Hardin.
Bottom line: the UND offense should have success gaining yards and moving the ball this week. There is no reason why they shouldn’t have 400+ yards of offense against this UNC defense.
Prediction
The Sioux have got to win this game. UNC is 0-8 on the year and for that reason alone it makes it a scary game. Nobody wants to lose to a winless team. As long as UND focuses on themselves and not on what hacks like us are saying about UNC and their 0-8 record, etc. – they should be fine. They have shown they can win on the road in the thin mountain air by going into Cedar City, UT and beating SUU. Now they need to do it again.
Get the run game going early and keep it going throughout. Make passing secondary. Defensively, play tight on the wideouts, tackle in the open field.
Also, we are seeing a 54-60 yard field goal coming from Zeb Miller. The ball flies in Greeley.
UND 27
UNC 13
